Expedia's Travel Momentum Grows, But Analysts Await Clearer Signs Of Long-Term Upside

Travel technology company Expedia Group Inc. EXPE reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings. The following are comments by different analysts on the company’s performance.

BofA Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated a Buy rating on the shares and raised the price forecast from $221.00 to $250.00.

In the fourth quarter, bookings reached $24.4 billion, surpassing the Street’s estimate of $23.2 billion, with continued growth in Vrbo bookings and a slight rebound at Hotels.com. Revenue of $3.18 billion exceeded the Street’s forecast of $3.07 billion, and EBITDA of $643 million also beat expectations of $577 million.

According to the analyst, the company has improved its brand execution under the new management team.

Given last year’s miss, typical travel and FX fluctuations, and a new C-suite leadership, a cautious full-year forecast is understandable, said the analyst.

If Expedia maintains its trajectory of improved execution under the new CEO, and the travel environment stabilizes, the analyst anticipates more revenue and EBITDA outperformance in 2025.

With B2C brands showing signs of recovery (a 7-point acceleration in B2C revenue growth in fourth-quarter), favorable comparisons ahead, and indications of continued improvement in U.S. travel, the analyst remains optimistic about potential upside in 2025.

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JMP Securities analyst Nicholas Jones reiterated a Market Perform rating on the shares.

Expedia posted strong fourth-quarter results, surpassing consensus estimates for both revenue and earnings, driven by sustained travel demand, said the analyst.

While guidance for first-quarter and the full year is slightly below expectations, the stock’s after-hours reaction (+11%) suggests the outlook is better than feared.

The analyst is encouraged by the momentum across EXPE’s core brands, with Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo all seeing booking growth. Vrbo’s acceleration was attributed to improved traffic and conversion trends.

Furthermore, EXPE’s loyalty program continues to show strong adoption, with membership up 7% in fourth-quarter and a 12-month repeat rate increasing by over 300 basis points year-over-year.

Overall, the analyst views EXPE’s fourth-quarter performance positively, though not as transformative. The analyst anticipates more consistent trends that will lead to stronger top-line growth, U.S. market share stabilization, and higher adjusted EBITDA margins before becoming more bullish on the stock.

DA Davidson analyst Tom White reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares and raised the price target from $190 to $205.

The company exceeded expectations with strong top-line and EBITDA growth, driven by a 9% increase in the B2C segment (a 5-point acceleration), impressive B2B growth (+24% Y/Y), and a 25% Y/Y rise in advertising revenue in the fourth quarter, per the analyst.

The initial guidance for CY’25 projects reported growth in both gross bookings and revenue in the range of +4% to +6%, accounting for approximately 200 basis points of FX headwinds, which is below the Street expectation of 2025 gross bookings growth around 7% and revenue growth of approximately 8%.

Price Action: EXPE shares are trading higher by 14.6% at $197.71 at the last check Friday.

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