Analyst Confident In Moderna's Cancer Vaccine But Highlights Other Challenges

On Friday, Moderna Inc. MRNA reported a fourth-quarter EPS loss of $(2.91), missing the consensus of $(2.62), a turnaround from EPS income of $0.55 a year ago.

The COVID-19 vaccine maker reported quarterly sales of $966 million, down from $2.81 billion a year ago, beating the consensus of $942.8 million.

Moderna has reiterated its 2025 revenue outlook of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion versus a consensus of $2.43 billion. Moderna expects revenue of approximately $0.2 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting the seasonality of its respiratory business.

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The two-season Phase 3 study evaluating Moderna’s trivalent vaccine against norovirus (mRNA-1403) is fully enrolled in the Northern Hemisphere. The company is preparing for second-season enrollment in the Southern Hemisphere.

The trial is currently on FDA clinical hold following a single adverse event report of a Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) case, which is currently under investigation.

RBC Capital writes that Moderna notes that the background rate of GBS is 1-2 per 100,000 participants per year, so it is not surprising to see one case, given they have enrolled 250,000 participants over the last couple of years.

GBS is a rare neurological disorder in which the body’s immune system attacks the peripheral nervous system.

The company does not expect an impact on the study’s efficacy readout timeline as enrollment in the Northern Hemisphere has already been completed. The timing of the Phase 3 readout will be dependent on case accruals.

The company’s cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine did not meet the criteria for early efficacy in a Phase 3 trial.

Moderna still expects data (after 112 cases) this year, and RBC analyst Luca Issi writes that Moderna remains upbeat about the opportunity.

RBC Capital says it still has confidence in Moderna’s cancer vaccine and its long-term potential, but challenges like declining COVID demand and slow RSV uptake remain in the short term. RBC Capital maintains a Sector Perform rating with a price target of $40.

Barclays analyst Gena Wang downgrades Moderna from Overweight to Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $111 to $45.

Moderna Stock Prediction For 2025

Equity research can be a valuable source of information for learning about a company's fundamentals. Analysts create financial models based on the fundamentals and expected future earnings of a company to arrive at a price target and recommendation for the stock.

Shares of Moderna have an average 1-year price target of $53.9, representing an expected upside of 52.24%.

Because of differences in assumptions, analysts can arrive at very different price targets and recommendations. 3 analysts have bearish recommendations on Moderna, while 2 analysts have bullish ratings. The street high price target from Goldman Sachs is $99.0, while the street low from B of A Securities is $34.0.

Price Action: MRNA stock is up 7.51% at $35.47 at last check Tuesday.

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