What To Expect From Intuit Q2 Earnings?

Wall Street analysts rerated Intuit Inc INTU ahead of its quarterly earnings report amid an exciting earnings season. JP Morgan analyst Mark R Murphy remained Neutral rated on Intuit.

Heading into Intuit’s second quarter, Murphy’s view of valuation risk/reward has improved, given the stock’s pullback to a lower level than it traded at 3.5 years ago while appreciating moving pieces, particularly around TurboTax, which is typically the leading investor focus this time of year due to the approaching tax season.

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The analyst published early on potential impacts from the IRS deferral of the tax filing deadline from April to October for those affected by the California wildfires.

He noted that the tax relief initiative may create noise in the short term and defer revenue from the third quarter to later periods, albeit likely in a de-minimis amount.

An emergent concern is that DOGE-related initiatives to simplify the tax code or develop a tax filing app could negatively impact TurboTax. Murphy noted these concerns are currently conceptual, though the narrative is weighing on sentiment and shares, which have underperformed recently.

The analyst commented that Intuit has expressed bullishness and confidence about this coming season. He also noted the company’s incremental investment in S&M spending related to TurboTax.

Murphy also noted that historically, Intuit has not been inclined to raise fiscal guidance after the second quarter, given the natural tax season volatility in the impending third quarter period.

Murphy remains fundamentally optimistic about QuickBooks’ strong value proposition and investments being made to move upmarket.

Other SMB-exposed software companies have provided directionally net positive feedback on the environment, but this has not yet translated to a broad-based inflection in spending.

Investor sentiment on the macro has trended positively despite inflation and interest rates remaining elevated.

A higher-for-longer interest rate environment is likely a net headwind to Credit Karma, all else equal, due to a tighter lending environment.

Based on Similarweb’s unique visitor traffic data, TurboTax’s unique visitor traffic is effectively seasonally consistent, with 164.4% sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 versus 165.2% growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2024.

QuickBooks unique visitor traffic improves materially, with 14.6% sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 versus 6.0% sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Mailchimp’s unique visitor traffic improves, with -3.9% sequential growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 versus -7.6% sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2024.

Credit Karma’s unique visitor traffic degrades appreciably, with -5.9% sequential growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 versus 7.3% sequential growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.

Price Action: INTU stock is up 0.90% at $570.55 at last check Monday.

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