Domino's Pizza Sees 1% QSR Market Share Increase Despite Q4 Earnings Miss: 'Consistent With Our Average Annual Share Growth'

Domino’s Pizza Inc. DPZ missed its fourth-quarter estimates but still delivered about 1% market share gains in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space in the U.S. The management reiterated confidence to "capture additional" market share gains in 2025.

What Happened: CEO Russell Weiner largely attributed the market share gains to the company's focus on value. According to him, their value-driven initiatives like Emergency Pizza, MOREflation, and aggregator partnerships resonated with consumers.

He said "renowned value was key" for its success for the year. "It helped drive market share gains in QSR pizza of about 1% in the U.S., consistent with our average annual share growth since 2015," he added.

Furthermore, talking about the future he said that Domino’s will deliver U.S. same-store sales growth of "3% or more annually," along with 175 net new stores.

"This would enable Domino’s to continue to capture additional market share gains in 2025 and beyond," he added.

Why It Matters: The company fell short of the fourth quarter expectations despite expanding global retail sales. Revenue rose 2.9% to $1.44 billion, missing the $1.48 billion estimate. Global retail sales increased 4.4% excluding currency impact, fueled by 364 new stores globally. U.S. same-store sales edged up 0.4%, while international grew 2.7% excluding currency. EPS was $4.89, below the anticipated $4.92.

The company also raised its dividend by 15.2% to $1.74 with a record date of March 14, to be paid on March 28.

CFO Sandeep Reddy said that the company expects an operating profit growth of approximately 8% excluding the impact of currency next year. "At current exchange rates, we are expecting foreign currency to be a headwind of approximately 1% to 2% on operating income growth," he added.

Price Action: Domino's fell 1.46% on Monday, contrasting with a 1.18% decline in the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index.

DPZ remains higher by 4.76% on a year-to-date basis and 0.73% lower over a year.

Benzinga tracks 29 analysts with an average price target of $502.97 for the stock, reflecting a “buy” rating. Estimates range widely from $402 to $612. Recent ratings from TD Cowen, Stephens & Co., and TD Securities average $466.67, suggesting a potential 2.13% upside.