Nvidia Stock 'Quite Cheap' Ahead Of Q4 Earnings: Analyst Says 'Growth Story Is Intact'

Semiconductor giant Nvidia Corporation NVDA is likely to report record financial results and highlight strong demand from technology companies when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results after market close Wednesday.

Nvidia Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Nvidia to report fourth-quarter revenue of $38.05 billion. That’s up from $22.1 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in nine straight quarters.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 84 cents per share for the fourth quarter — up from 52 cents per share in last year's fourth quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in eight straight quarters.

Revenue and earnings per share from Nvidia could once again be company records and continue the company's high growth across several business segments.

Guidance from the company given after third-quarter results calls for fourth-quarter revenue to be $37.5 billion plus or minus 2%.

What Analysts Are Saying

Reports of large Capex spending by other technology companies should bode well for Nvidia's results and guidance, Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said in a recent investor note.

The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating with a $175 price target.

"We are expecting NVDA to nicely beat January quarter estimates to the tune of $1.8 billion on the top line and revert back to the greater than $2 billion cadence beat that the company had maintained before its transition to Blackwell," Kumar said.

The analyst said demand for Blackwell is strong and should lead to a beat and raise quarter for Nvidia.

"We continue to believe NVDA is sold out for CY2025 and we see increasing cadence of beats of magnitude as the year progresses."

Kumar said reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Amazon show that demand for Nvidia products is large and could lead to increased guidance from the company.

"This tells us that interest in AI Capex spend remains robust and that NVDA's growth story is intact."

Truist analyst William Stein said Nvidia is the AI leader and the stock in the sector to own. The analyst maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia with a $200 price target.

Stein expects Nvidia to deliver upside to consensus estimates for the fourth-quarter and first quarter guidance.

With Nvidia stock trading at 23x calendar-year 2026 earnings per share, the analyst said Nvidia stock is "quite cheap."

The analyst's concerns are Hopper purchases slowing down, production challenges and Deepseek causing a slowdown to capex spending.

Stein said commentary from large technology companies suggest spending on products from Nvidia will be just fine.

"We expect a solid quarter, outlook & commentary," Stein said.

The analyst also expects Nvidia to discuss emerging AI models, data processing techniques and physical AI for items like robotics.

"We expect this will be a positive catalyst for the stock."

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore recently called a pullback in Nvidia stock related to the rise of Chinese AI competitor DeepSeek a buying opportunity.

Moore maintained an Overweight rating on Nvidia with a $152 price target.

The analyst said DeepSeek marks a “strong evolutionary upgrade in the AI space,” but comes in a space where Nvidia continues to improve AI performance and will continue to do so.

Nvidia could have several headwinds from the DeepSeek emergence including further export controls, a different financing environment for AI spenders and investor sentiment on the company turning negative.

“While we have several reasons to believe that large cluster builds will continue, mostly because the architects of those clusters are insisting so loudly every day, the cynicism is overwhelming,” Moore said.

Key Items to Watch: Freedom Capital Markets

Chief Global Strategist Jay Woods said there are likely three items investors will be watching for in Nvidia's quarterly results. Woods said Blackwell chip, DeepSeek questions and guidance top the list of items to watch.

For Blackwell, Woods said analysts expect $38 billion in quarterly revenue and are also looking for guidance on future revenue.

Woods questions if Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will address the concerns from competitor DeepSeek during the earnings commentary and earnings call.

The market strategist said when it comes to Nvidia's guidance, it will be two-fold.

"First, given the continued capex spending by major customers in Meta, Amazon and Alphabet, can they meet the demand? Secondly, they have a history of upping production for future earnings. Will this trend continue or are there growth concerns given global competition and inflation concerns at home?" Woods asks.

Revenue by segment could be another key area to watch. The data center segment posted a quarterly record for revenue in the third quarter. Data center revenue was up 112% year-over-year. The Gaming & AI PC and Professional Visualization segments had year-over-year growth of 15% and 17% respectively.

The gaming segment got a call-out as having a "great quarter" in the third quarter and seeing strong back-to-school sales. The segment's holiday sales impact could show through in the fourth-quarter results.

Price Action: Nvidia stock is down 2.7% to $126.81 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $75.61 to $153.13. Nvidia stock is down 8.3% year-to-date in 2025 and up over 60% in the last year.

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