Chevron Meeting Takeaways: Goldman Sachs Analyst Highlights Expectations For Volume And FCF Inflection

Chevron Corporation CVX shares are trading lower on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta hosted the company for an in-person meeting with investors in New York.

The analyst discussed several topics, including operational updates in Kazakhstan, growth prospects in the Gulf of America, ongoing cost reduction initiatives, and the roadmap to generating around $10 billion in additional free cash flow by 2026.

Mehta says, in Kazakhstan, the company is set to ramp up Tengiz to full production (~1 MBOE/d) within three months, with key milestones include first oil at the Future Growth Project (FGP), adding 260,000 bpd to capacity.

The project is expected to generate ~$5 billion – $6 billion in free cash flow in 2025/2026 (at $70/bbl Brent), including dividends and loan repayments, notes the analyst.

Mehta writes that Chevron highlighted strong performance in the Permian and reaffirmed its target of ~1 MBOE/d production in 2025.

The analyst notes that the company aims for ~6% CAGR in the Permian through 2026, and the near-term focus is on capital efficiency and cash flow generation, with an expected ~$2 billion free cash flow growth from the Permian by 2026.

In the long-term, management expects production to remain around ~1 MBOE/d, says the analyst.

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The company is focused on cost discipline, aiming for $2 billion – $3 billion in structural savings by year-end 2026, with ~$1.5 billion – $2 billion targeted by year-end 2025, adds the analyst.

Mehta says that investor discussions focused on the company’s collaboration with Engine No. 1 and GE Vernova to develop low-carbon power solutions, targeting up to four gigawatts for U.S. data centers.

With seven GE turbines set for late 2026-2027 delivery, management highlighted early market entry and ongoing site selection and customer engagement, adds the analyst.

The analyst reaffirms a Buy rating on the company and projects a volume and free cash flow inflection in 2025/2026, driven by strategic projects including TCO, Permian, and the Gulf of America.

The analyst also emphasizes the company’s ongoing focus on shareholder returns, with an estimated capital returns yield of around 12% in 2026.

Investors can gain exposure to CVX via EA Series Trust Strive U.S. Energy ETF DRLL and SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector XLE.

Price Action: CVX shares are down 0.96% at $150.54 at the last check Wednesday.

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