MongoDB's Solid Q4 Overshadowed By Weak FY26 Guidance, Expects Non-Atlas Headwinds

Shares of MongoDB Inc MDB tanked in early trading on Thursday, despite the company reporting upbeat fourth-quarter results.

The results came in amid a positive earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Wedbush On MongoDB

Analyst Daniel Ives reiterated an Outperform, while cutting the price target from $360 to $300.

MongoDB's total revenues grew 20% year-on-year to $548.4 million, beating Street expectations of $520.6 million, Ives said. Subscription revenue of $531.0 million also came in above consensus of $504.9 million, "as MDB looks to generate stable demand across industries for its next-gen solutions," he added.

NRR (net recurring revenues) stood at 118%, decelerating from 120% in the previous quarter, "due to a smaller contribution from existing customers," the analyst stated. "MongoDB provided relatively weak guidance across the board for FY26 as the company sees a more gradual impact from its AI solutions into FY26," he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets On MongoDB

Analyst Rishi Jaluria maintained an Outperform rating, while slashing the price target from $400 to $320.

MongoDB closed fiscal 2025 "on a solid note," with non-GAAP earnings of $1.28 per share beating consensus of 66 cents per share, Jaluria said. Although total revenues came in higher than consensus, growth decelerated by 2 points to 20% year-on-year, he added.

The company achieved strong profitability, with operating margins beating consensus by around 900 basis points, the analyst stated. Management's fiscal 2026 guidance was disappointing, being impacted by expectations of "a high single-digit decline in non-Atlas subscription revenue," he further wrote.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Rosenblatt Securities On MongoDB

Analyst Blair Abernethy reaffirmed a Buy rating, while reducing the price target from $350 to $305.

MongoDB's subscription revenues grew by 19% year-on-year to $531 million, beating consensus by 6%, Abernethy said. The beat was driven by "greater than expected non-Atlas multi-year contract signings of ~$10m," he added.

While the company expects Atlas consumption growth to remain stable in fiscal 2026, its weaker revenue guidance for the year is impacted "largely by a $50m non-Atlas multi-year license headwind," the analyst stated. "Mongo continues to see a significant longer-term AI opportunity for its highly scalable, flexible document model that handles all data types," he further wrote.

Needham On MongoDB

Analyst Mike Cikos maintained a Buy rating, while slashing the price target from $415 to $270.

MongoDB guided to revenue growth of 16%-17% in the fiscal first quarter to a range of $524.0 million to $529.0 million and 12%-14% growth in fiscal 2026 to $2.240 billion to $2.280 billion, Cikos said. The full-year revenue guidance came well below Street expectations of $2.328 billion, he added.

The company expects non-Atlas subscription revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage, the analyst wrote. "All eyes are set squarely on Atlas (71% of Revenue) to drive revenue outperformance," with consumption growth stabilizing and the company poised to benefit from "a stronger cohort of acquired workloads in FY25 versus FY24," he further wrote.

Piper Sandler On MongoDB

Analyst Brent Bracelin maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $425 to $280.

MongoDB total revenues grew 19.7% year-on-year to $548 million, "with Atlas upside contributing to a $31M beat to the midpoint guide," Bracelin said. Atlas grew by a healthy 24% year-on-year during the fiscal fourth quarter, although this marked a deceleration from the 26% reported in the previous quarter, he added.

Management indicated that Atlas consumption trends are stabilizing, the analyst stated. Bracelin said, however, that the company's growth outlook came in below 14% for second straight year.

MDB Price Action: Shares of MongoDB had declined by 21.61% to $207.06 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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