CompoSecure Beats EBITDA Estimates But Analyst Cuts Price Forecast Amid Resolute Spin-Off And Growth Outlook

Needham analyst John Todaro maintained CompoSecure Inc CMPO with a Buy and lowered the price target from $16 to $15.

On Wednesday, CompoSecure reported fourth-quarter revenue of $101 million versus Todaro’s $103 million and street’s $102 million. Quarterly EBITDA was $34 million compared to Todaro’s $32 million and street’s $31 million.

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The quarterly adjusted EPS was $0.20 compared to Todaro’s $0.18 estimate and the street’s $0.18.

CompoSecure reported a modest fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA beat, driven by lower than expected cash SG&A (ex-~$10 million of one-time earnout & spin-off costs), while gross profit was in line as softer topline was offset by higher margins.

Todaro gained more comfort around the Resolute spin, with management’s reassured focus on CompoSecure, but M&A remains a patient process.

The analyst liked the revenue clarity on Arculus, which turned profitable in the fourth quarter (+$3.5 million adjusted EBITDA contribution).

He lowered his fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA to $145 million ($157 million previously), which matches guidance for mid-single-digit percentage topline and adjusted EBITDA growth (includes ~$12 million headwind management fees paid to Resolute Holdings at 2.5% of last 12 months adjusted EBITDA less SBC), which starts in the first quarter of 2025.

Todaro projected first-quarter revenue of $101 million and EPS of $0.15.

Price Action: CMPO stock is down 2% at $11.75 at the last check on Thursday.

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