After President Donald Trump imposed an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports, China has retaliated with tariffs on major agricultural imports from the U.S. Many agricultural product manufacturers, suppliers, and related businesses are likely to be impacted by this move.
What Happened: China’s newly imposed tariffs will take effect from March 10, whereas the goods already in transit will be exempt until April 12, according to the Chinese Commerce Ministry.
These latest measures from Beijing target about $22 billion of American agriculture products that include one of its largest export worth $12 billion to China — Soybeans, reported FT. Chicken, pork, beef, corn, seafood, and cotton are among the 740 items with newly imposed tariffs.
These Chinese tariffs on agricultural products emerged after Trump’s joint Congress address, where he said that his tariff polices focused on protecting the American farmers.
“Because those goods that come in from other countries and companies, they're really, really in a bad position in so many different ways. They're uninspected. They may be very dirty and disgusting and they come in and they pour in and they hurt our American farmers,” said Trump at the Congress address.
Following this, Beijing also halted U.S. timber imports, citing pest infestations such as recent detections of bark beetles and longhorn beetles.
Here’s a list of public companies involved with the manufacturing and supply of soybeans that could be impacted following China’s tariffs.
Stocks | YTD Performance | One Year Performance |
Seaboard Corp. SEB | 22.89% | -6.81% |
Corteva Inc. CTVA | 7.49% | 9.93% |
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC | 3.25% | -6.21% |
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADM | -1.55% | -9.96% |
Bunge Global SA BG | -2.54% | -19.41% |
Here is the list of common agricultural industry exposed exchange-traded funds that could bear the brunt of tariffs on all 740 items.
ETFs | YTD Performance | One Year Performance |
Teucrium Soybean Fund SOYB | -0.07% | -13.66% |
Global X AgTech & Food Innovation ETF KROP | 6.98% | -4.02% |
VanEck Agribusiness ETF MOO | 7.55% | -5.06% |
First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF FTXG | 3.82% | -0.62% |
iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF VEGI | 7.06% | 2.50% |
Why It Matters: While tariffs are inherently considered to be inflationary, some analysts have opined otherwise. According to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, "The anxiety over tariffs may be holding back some consumers, but I want to assure you that I do not expect most tariffs to be inflationary. As an example, the tariffs that have been imposed on China are expected to be suppressed by Chinese deflation as well as a weak Chinese yuan."
On Sunday, Trump acknowledged the potential of short-term turbulence and didn’t rule out recession stemming from his economic agenda. In a Fox News interview, he said, "I hate to predict things like that" and called the changes being brought about by his administration as "very big."
However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession fears, saying the U.S. is in a “transition” as President Trump plans broad reciprocal tariffs. "There's going to be no recession… Global tariffs will drop," Lutnick told NBC's Meet the Press.
Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Friday that the U.S. economy is overly dependent on government spending, predicting a “detox period.”
Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. SPY lost 1.29% to fall at $568.50 level, and QQQ declined 1.47% to $484.55, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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