Oracle Q3 Earnings Preview: 'Some Positive Signs And Good Risk/Reward' Ahead Of Print

Software giant Oracle Corporation ORCL could highlight its AI progress when the company reports third-quarter financial results after market close Monday.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Oracle to report third-quarter revenue of $14.39 billion, up from $11.45 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company missed revenue estimates in the second quarter and has missed revenue estimates from analysts in seven of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $1.49, up from $1.41 in last year's third quarter. The company missed analyst estimates in the second quarter, while beating estimates in eight of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are Saying: Oracle stock could be highly volatile after Monday's earnings report, Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist Jay Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

"Shares of the software giant have fallen over 20% from their December peak and are trading at their lowest levels since last September. They missed earnings last quarter and fell even further on the uncertainty around the competition from DeepSeek."

Woods said the one-day implied move is +/- 9.2% for Oracle stock, a move that could impact several ETFs that count the stock as a top holding including the SPDR-Select Technology ETF XLK.

Last week Oracle stock closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since February of 2025. Woods questions if the stock can stay above this support area after earnings.

"There are some positive signs and good risk/reward set-ups to watch as we head into Monday afternoon's earnings release."

JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy maintained a Neutral rating ahead of the earnings report.

The analyst said Oracle could have a spike in remaining performance obligations. Murphy said Oracle's heavy debt load could be a concern and an area for investors to watch.

Oracle should have several large AI-related deals in the quarter and could highlight its role in Project Stargate, Murphy added.

Key Items to Watch: Along with AI revenue and deals, another key item to watch will be if Oracle comments on the TikTok sale process. Oracle is a partner with TikTok and could be involved in the future or move to the side, depending on which bidding group, if any, ends up acquiring the company.

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has been mentioned by President Donald Trump as an interested party in TikTok, but Oracle has been relatively quiet about its intentions regarding an acquisition.

Oracle's cloud revenue was $5.9 billion in the second quarter, up 24% year-over-year. The increase came from "record level AI demand."

Ellison said Oracle will continue to see impressive growth thanks to artificial intelligence.

“Oracle trained AI models and AI Agents will improve the rate of scientific discovery, economic development and corporate growth throughout the world. The scale of the opportunity is unimaginable,” Ellison said.

Analysts and investors will likely be hoping for the company to beat revenue and earnings per share estimates and provide a bullish look on the future outlook of the company.

ORCL Price Action: Oracle stock is down 4.8% to $147.72 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $111.18 to $198.31. Oracle shares are down 11% year-to-date in 2025, while up 29% over the last year.

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