Freshpet Is Not Out Of The Woods On Consumption Trends, Analyst Says

J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman cut the price forecast for Freshpet, Inc. FRPT from $154 to $102 while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst says that key concerns for the company include changing consumption trends (particularly among lower- and middle-income consumers and in terms of household penetration) and uncertainity about accuracy of consensus estimates for first-quarter FY25 and beyond.

Meanwhile, Goldman cites the company’s strong revenue growth, which is among the best in U.S. consumer staples and substantial reasons to consider FRPT will continue to grow over the long term as tailwinds.

The analyst revised revenue growth estimates from 22.9% to 18.9% (vs. Street estimates of 20.1%) for the first quarter of FY25, from 24.1% to 21.0% (Street 22.7%) for FY25, and from 23.4% to 18.3% (Street 22.8%) for FY26.

Also, the analyst updates EBITDA estimates from $40 million to $38 million (Street $40 million) for first quarter of FY25 and from $211 million to $210 million (Street $213 million) for 2025.

The analyst now sees an EBITDA of $267 million (vs. $277 million prior and a consensus of $286 million).

Goldman introduced FY27 estimates of revenue growth of 16.2% vs. consensus of 21.7% and EBITDA of $335 million (Street $384 million).

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via ProShares Pet Care ETF PAWZ.

Price Action: FRPT shares are down 7.46% at $89.63 at the last check Monday.

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