Clean Energy Stocks Face Policy Risks, But JP Morgan Sees Long-Term Upside In These Names

On Wednesday, JP Morgan analyst Mark Strouse shared his insights on the clean energy sector during a recap of fourth-quarter earnings.

The analyst writes that power demand remains strong, particularly in utility-scale projects, with growing backlogs across all companies in this subsector.

While utility-scale challenges like transformer availability and financing have mostly stabilized, project-specific issues are projected to persist in the near term, adds the analyst.

Strouse says that the U.S. residential solar sector remains weak due to high interest rates, financing challenges, and lower growth projections from major installers.

The analyst expects clarity on potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act to be a key near-term catalyst, with increasing Republican support in the House of Representatives.

Strouse writes that until policy clarity improves, he will continue to favor companies with strong U.S. manufacturing exposure, diversified markets, and long-term cash flow visibility.

This includes NEXTracker NXT, GE Vernova Inc. GEV, First Solar, Inc. FSLR and HASI HASI, adds the analyst.

GEV: Strouse writes that while AI-related headlines may introduce short-term stock volatility, he notes the ongoing rise in gas power prices and customer demand for turbines will provide confidence in the company's future performance.

Additionally, the strong position of GEV's Electrification backlog supports the view that the company can achieve significant earnings growth over the next four years, regardless of hyperscaler capex plans.

GEV is a U.S. Equity Analyst Focus List pick. The analyst kept the price forecast at $436 with an Overweight rating.

FSLR: The analyst anticipates the company will see a strong rebound in bookings during FY25, increasing visibility into FY27 and beyond, potentially at higher pricing if new tariffs or FEOC regulations are introduced.

The analyst kept the price forecast at $268, with an Overweight rating.

NXT: Strouse says that the company’s scale, margin resilience, strong balance sheet, and geographic diversification make it a safe bet for investors in the current market.

The analyst maintained the price forecast of $61 and an Overweight rating.

HASI: The analyst says that his estimates remain largely unchanged and updated the price forecast from $39 to $42 to reflect a ~30bps decline in a risk-free rate since the last update.

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