Rubrik Next-Gen Data Backup And Recovery Platform Makes It A 'Market Leader For Years,' Analyst Upgrades Stock

Rubrik Inc RBRK stock gained Wednesday after Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy upgraded the stock rating from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77.

Rubrik reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on March 13. Abernethy expects marginally better results from Rubrik in the fourth quarter, with total revenue growth of 33% to $232.5 million and subscription revenue growth of 40%.

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The analyst expects subscription revenue to account for 94% of total revenue in fiscal 2025 (cloud was 77% of ARR as of the third quarter) and left his forecast unchanged.

Since Abernethy’s initiation report on December 16, the stock has declined ~25%.

The rerating reflects Rubrik’s strong product position in a growing Total Addressable Market. For the fourth quarter, the analyst expected total revenue of $232.5 million (FactSet consensus $233 million, guidance: $231.5 million-$233.5 million), up 33% organically (third-quarter was up 43%), and expects subscription revenue growth of 40%.

Abernethy expects maintenance revenue to decline to $3.3 million (1% of total revenue) in the fourth quarter.

The analyst expects a fourth-quarter adjusted operating margin of (29)% (versus FactSet consensus of (28)%).

The analyst noted that Rubrik has a leading next-generation data backup and recovery platform, built with a zero-trust architecture and significant technical extensions, that should enable it to be a market leader for years.

Rubrik benefits from several macro trends, including data growth, AI proliferation, and cybersecurity. Its comprehensive, integrated platform enables Rubrik to address a growing market for Data Management (backup, recovery, and archiving) and parts of the Security market (including app security, data privacy, and privileged access), totaling ~$36 billion.

In December, the Company announced Rubrik Annapurna for Amazon Bedrock. This new API service built into the Rubrik Security Cloud platform will allow customers to securely retrieve data embeddings from across the enterprise, including data and metadata.

Abernethy noted this as an essential expansion opportunity for Rubrik. It will enable customers to leverage the Rubrik platform further, reduce the need to maintain custom data pipelines and allow better control of sensitive data used by emerging GenAI applications.

Price Action: RBRK stock is up 7.16% at $57.68 at last check Wednesday.

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