Bitcoin Miners Ride The BTC Boom, But Costs Tell A Different Story: JPMorgan Analyst

Bitcoin BTC/USD miners just had one of their best quarters on record, but the real winners aren't just those mining the most coins – it's those keeping costs in check.

JPMorgan analyst Reginald L. Smith breaks down the latest trends in the sector, upgrading IREN Ltd IREN to Overweight while moving Cipher Mining Inc CIFR to Neutral.

A Record Quarter, But Who Benefited Most?

The fourth quarter saw four of the five major publicly traded bitcoin miners – Cipher, CleanSpark Inc CLSK, IREN, MARA Holdings Inc MARA and Riot Platforms Inc RIOT – report record revenues and profits, largely thanks to Bitcoin's price surge.

MARA led the pack in total coins mined (2,514 BTC), but IREN stole the show with a 65% increase in production quarter-over-quarter, bringing in 1,347 BTC.

Mining Costs: The Great Divide

Efficiency is key in Bitcoin mining, and IREN came out on top, producing BTC at the lowest all-in cash cost of ~$36,100 per coin. Riot, on the other hand, posted the highest cost at ~$72,400 per BTC—a steep price even with BTC averaging ~$83,300 in the fourth quarter.

Smith notes that MARA had the lowest cash SG&A costs at $9,600 per coin, making it a lean operator despite its relatively high power costs ($52,400 per BTC).

Hashrate Growth Takes A Breather

After an aggressive 180% increase in hashrate in 2024 – outpacing even network growth—the five miners are slowing down in 2025. CleanSpark and MARA are shifting toward more disciplined capital management, while IREN, Cipher, and Riot are evaluating hashrate expansion versus high-performance computing (HPC) opportunities.

Riot and IREN have already trimmed their hashrate targets to free up capacity for HPC projects, with Cipher also considering reallocating resources.

HPC: The Next Big Pivot?

Miners aren't just chasing bitcoin anymore. Smith sees HPC data centers as a key growth driver, with Cipher best positioned to strike a deal in the near term. IREN is constructing a 75 MW multi-tenant, liquid-cooled HPC data center, expected to go live in 2H25, though financing and tenant details remain unclear.

Riot and IREN continue active talks with hyperscalers, but deals are taking longer to materialize.

Stock Ratings Shake-Up

Smith is upgrading IREN to Overweight with a $12 price target, citing its low-cost structure and strong production growth.

CleanSpark, also rated Overweight, gets a revised $12 price target (down from $17) due to deteriorating mining economics.

Meanwhile, Cipher moves to Neutral, as its 2025 hashrate target lags behind competitors, and capital raises appear likely.

MARA and Riot remain Neutral and Overweight, respectively, with price targets of $18 and $13.

With miners slowing expansion, pivoting toward HPC, and managing capital more cautiously, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of strategic recalibration. Bitcoin's price will still dictate the sector's fate, but as Smith highlights, those with the lowest costs and diversified revenue streams will have the edge.

Read Next: