Hain Celestial Valuation Is Low Versus Historical Levels, But Analyst Remains Neutral - Here's Why

J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman reiterated the Neutral rating on The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN, lowering the price forecast to $5 from $6.

The analyst expressed a cautious outlook on The Hain Celestial Group, noting that the revised estimates and price forecast reflect the likelihood that sales trends are trending toward the lower end of the company’s annual guidance, closer to a -4% decline rather than the more optimistic -3% forecast from Consensus Metrix.

Goldman pointed out that while certain U.S.-based categories like baby food, tea, and yogurt are performing relatively better, the company’s snack segment appears to be struggling, particularly in light of NielsenIQ data.

Furthermore, the analyst speculated that the International segment may also underperform this quarter as consumers in key markets increasingly shift toward discount retailers, which could negatively impact the firm’s sales in some of its major categories.

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Despite the stock’s low valuation compared to historical levels, the analyst remains neutral, citing concerns over the potential unreliability of the projected EBITDA figures that are used in consensus forecasts.

The analyst revised EBITDA estimates, lowering 3Q25 to $40 million from $47 million, FY25 to $150 million from $158 million, FY26 to $154 million from $165 million, and FY27 to $158 million from $168 million, with all figures below Consensus Metrix projections.

On the flipside, Goldman notes that CEO Wendy Davidson’s broader strategy, focused on driving growth through efficiency-driven marketing and innovation, could yield long-term benefits.

Additionally, some of the company’s brands hold unique positions on shelves, with significant potential for expanded distribution.

Price Action: HAIN shares are trading lower by 9.79% to $3.915 at last check Friday.

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