Tesla, Rivian, Aurora Highlight Tech: Autonomous Opportunities, Analyst Sees 'Attractive Profit Opportunity'

An electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle analyst sees the ramp-up and near-term deployments as the key catalysts for the sectors.

What Happened: Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney met with several companies in the sectors and shares takeaways in a new investor note, with robotaxis one of the key areas of focus.

Among the public companies covered in the report are Tesla Inc TSLA, Rivian Automotive RIVN and Aurora Innovation AUR.

"Several companies we spoke to are focused on near-term deployments and/or ramps, including Tesla targeting a June robotaxi launch in Texas, Aurora having its commercial launch planned for April in Texas," Delaney said.

The analyst said safety and performance are key aspects that determine the launch activity.

"Companies we met on the trip discussed moats that include first/early-mover benefits that would create high switching costs, multi-year leads on technology, and in some cases scale/cost structure benefits," he said.

Goldman Sachs on TSLA: Delaney said Tesla is using AI to drive non-linear gains for performance and safety of FSD.

"Tesla mentioned robotaxi specific work needed to launch related to factors such as ride smoothness, remote assistance, and the geographic area/ODD," said Delaney, adding that Tesla highlighted their internal data is better than crowd sourced data.

Delaney said Tesla should have an "attractive profit opportunity" for robotaxis with the current cost to own a Model Y around $0.70 per mile and the extra robotaxi costs coming in below the average price per mile for rideshare of over $2 in the United States.

Tesla had a cost of goods sold per vehicle under $35,000 globally last quarter. The Cybercab could have a cost of around $30,000 including autonomy hardware, according to the analyst.

The EV giant is expected to launch a new lower cost model by the end of the second quarter, part of a plan for several new products launched in 2025.

The analyst also highlighted the Optimus bot in the investor note. Tesla has a goal of reaching volume of 10,000 bots by the end of the year and hopes the long-term cost of the robots will fall under $20,000 each.

Goldman Sachs on Aurora: Delaney said Aurora mentioned how its technology stack would allow the company to be in the robotaxi space longer-term, while it focuses initially on the trucking segment.

Aurora cited savings of roughly a third with autonomous driving over human driving during the analyst's visit.

Autonomous trucks could also save on space and costs without the need for items like infotainment and a sleeper cab for the driver.

Goldman Sachs on Rivian: The analyst's meeting with Rivian saw the company highlight the opportunity to monetize personal autonomy products.

"We believe that what form that takes may change by region and depend on how differentiated the technology is," Delaney said.

Rivian highlighted its upcoming R2 set for launch in the first half of 2026 during its visit with the analyst.

When speaking of vehicle volume growth, Rivian said macroeconomics and policy items like the tax credit and tariffs could factor into estimates and guidance.

"With respect to tariffs, the companies we spoke to will look to adjust and optimize for sourcing and price-cost."

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