Tesla Investors Advised To Fasten Their Seatbelts As Analyst Expects March Deliveries To Take A Hit: It's Still 'Best-Positioned Company In Physical AI'

The shares of Tesla Inc. TSLA have plunged nearly 40% in 2025 and the street is now expecting the company to miss its March delivery estimates. Despite this, the company logged its highest weekly registrations in China so far this year. Here's what analysts are saying.

What Happened: According to the Wall Street consensus, the Elon Musk-led automaker is expected to record 422,000 deliveries, up 9% year-on-year in March. However, Gene Munster, the managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management has highlighted in an X post that the "whisper number" stands at 375,000, down 3% year-on-year.

Despite quoting the "whisper number," Muster said that he expects a decline of more than 3% in March deliveries. According to him, the next 12 days of trading are crucial for TSLA investors as it "will likely dominate the stock's narrative."

Muster also adds that he expects a return to growth and a vehicle launch in early 2026 to uplift the stock after it has hit a bottom. "I’m still optimistic about shares in the long term and believe Tesla is the best-positioned company in physical AI," he adds.

For the next 12 trading days, $TSLA investors may want to keep their seatbelts fastened, as concerns over March deliveries will likely dominate the stock's narrative.

➡️ At this point, most investors expect March deliveries to fall below expectations. The Street consensus…
— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) March 17, 2025

Apart from this, Gary Black, the managing partner at the Future Fund LLC highlighted in an X post that China reported 15,300 registrations in the last week, which was the highest so far this year.

"While strong, we believe this could have been even higher, as Giga Shanghai continues to struggle with Model Y Juniper production issues," Black added.

$TSLA China reported a respectable 15.3K insured registrations for the week of Mar 10-16. This was the highest week of China registrations so far this year. After 11 weeks, 1st quarter is -4.4% YoY and -38.2% QoQ. While strong, we believe this # could have been even higher, as… pic.twitter.com/jKmQmGvsiJ
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 18, 2025

Why It Matters: Tesla's market capitalization stood at $1,296.35 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024, which has plunged to $745.80 billion as of March 17, destroying about 42.47% of investor wealth in 2025.

Meanwhile, Mizuho cut Tesla's price target from $515 to $430 apiece, citing weakening demand and revising delivery forecasts to 1.8 million and 2.3 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Analysts also noted significant underperformance in the U.S., China, and Europe last month.

Additionally, nationwide protests have targeted Tesla showrooms due to Musk’s political activities, including his role in Trump’s DOGE. Recent footage shared by Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, showed protesters in Santa Monica, with his child expressing anti-Tesla sentiment.

Guess the tesla takeover was in Santa Monica today. My wife ran into this peaceful display of distaste for Elon Musk in front of the tesla store. At the end listen to what my 9 year old said. Sad for tesla 😞 $tsla pic.twitter.com/AXJXoX1fcP
— Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) March 16, 2025

Price Action: Tesla shares have declined 37.25% on a year-to-date basis and it’s up 36.94% over a year. Tesla shares were down 2% in premarket on Tuesday whereas the exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ was 0.37% lower.

Benzinga's Edge Rankings show a poor price trend and value ranking for the stock with neutral fundamental growth. The stock’s momentum and quality rankings continue to be strong amid other pressures.

Its consensus price target was $318.22, with a ‘hold' rating, based on the 30 analysts tracked by Benzinga. The price targets ranged from a low of $24.86 to a high of $550. The three latest ratings from Canaccord Genuity, Mizuho, and Wells Fargo averaged $321.33, implying a 37.67% upside.