5 Recession-Proof Stocks To Consider As Economic Fears Grow

Uncertainty has taken over the market. Business and consumer sentiment data are souring as markets tumble and tariff policy continues to lack rhyme or reason. The St Louis Fed's US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has spiked to its highest level since December 2020. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers dropped nearly 10% from January to February and is now down 17% year-over-year.

Business owners continue to mention tariff uncertainty in surveys. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell in February while the NFIB Uncertainty Index rose to its second-highest recorded level. Complicating matters are increasing inflation expectations for 2025, which could put the Federal Reserve in a tight spot between cutting rates to spur growth or keeping rates unchanged to limit higher prices. 

This precarious cocktail has investors on edge as U.S. stocks lag global markets. While it’s too soon to talk about a recession being imminent, it’s a good time to start thinking defensively.

Here are five stocks with solid fundamentals in sectors that tend to do well when the economy slows.

Republic Services Inc.

When investors think of waste management services, they usually conjure the aptly-named Waste Management Inc. WM. However, the lesser-known Republic Services RSG also runs integrated commercial, residential and industrial solid waste services with over 200 landfills and an additional 246 transfer stations. Contrasted to its larger rival WM, RSG has a comparable P/E ratio, better margins and a significantly better Price to Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) per Share (35.05 vs 41.89). The stock has also increased over 27% in the last 12 months, compared to just 8.7% for WM shares.

RSG shares pulled back in the first week of March, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently diverged upward, indicating that volume may be accumulating for the next leg higher. RSG also scores well in two crucial Benzinga Edge metrics: 86.20 in Momentum and 88.57 in Quality. On March 4, analysts at CIBC upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform, with a price target of $265. UBS, Goldman Sachs and Stifel also boosted price targets on the stock in the last month.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.

Dollar stores and discount retailers are often popular picks during economic slowdowns. Still, investors must be careful in this environment not to count on stocks with thin margins and heavy reliance on imports. Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI is a purveyor of excess buildup, meaning it purchases overstocked or overproduced items from manufacturers and wholesalers and sells them at its warehouses at a deep discount.

Ollie's business model gives it a leg up over traditional discount retailers like Dollar Tree. The company's 9% profit margin towers over figures from Dollar Tree, Dollar General and even larger chains like Walmart and Target. Ollie's has boosted revenue by nearly 8% year-over-year, but the stock is down almost 10% in the last three months.

However, as the chart above shows, a buying opportunity could be materializing right now. The upward momentum has stalled, but a bullish wedge is forming, which could signal buyers are consolidating in preparation for a new breakout. Keep an eye on this pattern for a potential breakout as the price range continues to condense. 

Kimberly-Clark Corp.

Household products like paper towels, toilet paper, hygiene products, detergents and other cleaning supplies have very inelastic demand, so these companies are often popular investments during recessions or economic slowdowns. Kimberly-Clark Corp KMB is our pick for this particular industry thanks to its attractive valuation, strong dividend and potential breakout from a multi-year trading range.

KMB shares recently reached a nearly five-year high, smashing through a resistance level that had been in place since the end of 2020. This promising technical signal is supported by strong fundamental data as well. KMB trades at just 19 times earnings, far lower than competitors like Proctor and Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive. It also trades at just 2.4 times sales while maintaining a healthy 12.7% profit margin. KMB pays a 3.5% dividend and the recent breakout has boosted its Benzinga Edge Momentum score to 71.54 – a rare occurrence in the consumer staples sector.

Unum Group

Here's an insurance company that very few investors have heard about but has the prettiest-looking chart of the bunch. Unum Group UNM provides individual income protection plans to clients in the United States, United Kingdom and Poland while also offering long-term care, life and employee-benefit insurance plans through segments like Colonial Life and Closed Block.

Unum Group performed exceptionally well during the 2022 bear market, posting positive gains when most stocks suffered prolonged drawdowns. UNM shares staged a rally in 2024 and have risen by over 60% in the last 12 months. From a fundamental standpoint, the company is in a strong position with 1.27 P/B Value Per Share, 8.3 P/E ratio and 13.9% profit margin. UNM shares also grade out exceptionally well in three crucial Benzinga Edge metrics: Momentum (94.60), Value (89.28) and Quality (84.32).

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

When Uncle Warren starts raising cash, investors start paying attention. The Oracle of Omaha has been selling stock to increase Berkshire's BRK cash pile, and while a 94-year-old insurance CEO may have different investment goals than the rest of us, it’s worth noting when Buffett begins stacking dry powder.

Buffett's cash pile is not unusual considering his long-term track record. While Buffett praises buy-and-hold strategies for retail investors, he himself has always been a bit of a market timer. His cash horde suggests he's waiting for volatility to wane before putting new capital to work.

Whether a recession materializes or not, stocks like BRK.B are good places to harbor while waiting for calmer waters to return. Berkshire's free cash flow pile stands at an impressive $11.6 billion with the stock trading at 12 times earnings. The insurance giant also grades well in Benzinga Edge in terms of Momentum (82.74) and Value (73.69). The stock chart shows some consolidation over the last week and the upward trend remains in place.

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