Aggressive Trader With Nearly $1M in Play Bets Big On Market Drop—'What If We Don't Get There?'—Reddit Debates His High-Risk Strategy

Market downturns can be both terrifying and opportunistic for investors because while some see drops as a reason to panic, others view them as a chance to buy assets at a discount.

Still, investing during a market decline is not without risks, especially when using high-risk strategies like leveraging ETFs or betting heavily on a continuous downturn. One Reddit user has sparked a lively debate with his very aggressive approach to the current market.

The poster, in his 30s with nearly $1 million to invest, is betting big on a further market drop. He has already committed $370,000 to this approach, which involves selling Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ and using the proceeds to buy ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ–a 3x leveraged version of QQQ–and is willing to invest another $550,000.

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“Normally, I hold QQQ and sell monthly calls [out of the money] with a .15 delta. Try to make 4%-7% on top with dividends. Now that TQQQ is coming down, I am selling QQQ, doing some tax loss harvesting, and buying TQQQ (1x->3x). The price target for sale is $86. Hoping the market will keep dropping. I swap 50 shares of QQQ for every 1% it drops. I estimate I’ll be out of money around 25%-35%, depending on how closely I stick to the plan,” he wrote.

But his strategy isn’t without concerns. He questions whether the market will actually drop that much, asking, “What if we don't get there?” The Reddit community had plenty to say about the investor’s strategy, so let’s dive into the comments they left.

Betting Big on Market Drop–Reddit Has a Lot to Say

Leveraged ETFs are Way Too Risky

Several commenters highlighted the fact that while many investors use leveraged ETFs to amplify their returns, they are risky and urged the poster to proceed with caution.

“Taking profits? My dude, TQQQ is going under $35 by May. I do swing trade just because of the values and % of my portfolio, but [ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ SQQQ] will still outperform just about any bearish tech strategy unless you just get super lucky with puts,” a commenter said.

One Redditor explained the concept of decay, which can erode returns over time, meaning that even if the market goes sideways or stabilizes, the investor’s TQQQ holdings could lose value.

“It’s called decay and it happens due to volatility (happens to everything that can be publicly traded, actually) and due to borrowing costs for the leverage. Borrowing costs increase when interest rates are higher, and decrease when interest rates are lower. So over time, even if the price of the underlying stays flat, the price of a leveraged ETF will converge to zero,” he wrote.

Another user reinforced the idea that leveraged ETFs aren’t ideal for long-term holding.

“I would be taking profits soon. S—t decays so fast,” he said.

While most comments were against the investor using this strategy, some Redditors shared they also employ this approach and agree with it.

“Wow, I actually am using the same method. I will sell 10 shares of QQQ to exchange TQQQ for every 1% drop. My average cost is $67. However, I only have $150,000 in total before the deadline,” a Reddit user shared.

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Timing is Everything With High-Risk Strategies

Redditors also cautioned the investor to time the trades well by aligning them with the market momentum rather than fighting it and holding.

“You didn’t learn an even more valuable lesson: Don’t fight the momentum! The momentum has been down, down, down. Until we get economic data, policy data, and/or technical indicators that show the momentum is changing, play the momentum! You didn’t learn your lesson well. You let [fear of missing out] on a reversal (greed) determine your trade, instead of letting market momentum dictate the trade. And now you are paying the piper,” a user wrote.

A commenter offered a counterpoint, suggesting that the market may have already bottomed out.

“I think we bottomed today. There’s no real reason for the sell-off other than fear and over-leverage. It will come back in time. Per seasonality, April and May are strong months so might as well position now even if we may still be volatile in the short term,” he said.

“Once tariffs raise prices in the next months, then hit [consumer price index] and inflation pops up, then the Fed raises rates, we'll be in a longer cycle bear market and TQQQ will bottom after the sell-off. Probably 9-12 months from now,” another Redditor warned.

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