What's In Store For Darden This Earnings Season? Analyst Predicts Slight Miss In Same-store Sales

On Wednesday, Oppenheimer analyst Brian Bittner reiterated the Outperform rating on Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI, with a price forecast of $218.

Darden plans to release its fiscal 2025 third quarter financial results before the market opens on Thursday, March 20.

The analyst notes that, despite concerns regarding discretionary consumer spending, the company’s shares have performed well, showing a 0.7% increase year-to-date.

In early January, Bittner raised the stock to a “top pick,” with the investment thesis based on the expected positive earnings cycle in fiscal 2026, which begins in late May.

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The analyst remains confident in this catalyst, driven by new sales drivers, such as OG delivery, and the belief that Street margin forecasts are overly conservative.

Meanwhile, the analyst flags a slight miss in same-store sales in their model due to weaker industry data in January and February.

The analyst predicts management to reaffirm its fiscal 2025 earnings per share guidance.

Bittner highlights that Darden’s third-quarter period, which lasted from late November through late February, faced industry-wide challenges, including calendar shifts, adverse weather, a tough flu season, and consumer weakness.

Incorporating these factors into their model, the analyst now forecasts the firm’s same-store sales growth at 1.2%, compared to the Street’s estimate of 1.7%.

For specific segments, the analyst expects OG to grow by 1.0% and LH by 4.5%.

As a result of these updated SSS projections, the analyst’s earnings per share estimate is slightly below consensus, coming in at $2.78 compared to the consensus estimate of $2.79.

Price Action: DRI shares are trading lower by 0.45% to $187.21 at last check Wednesday.

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