Trump Tariffs Could Ignite Global Trade Shakeup: Betting Markets Price In Pain

President Donald Trump is set to unveil Wednesday a sweeping tariff plan—nicknamed "Liberation Day" by his team—that could lift U.S. trade duties to levels not seen in decades, disrupting global supply chains and jolting financial markets already wary of geopolitical risk.

In a report published Tuesday, the Washington Post reported that the White House has drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most of the $3 trillion in goods imported annually into the U.S.

The policy, expected to be revealed during a 3:00 p.m. ET Rose Garden ceremony on Wednesday, would introduce a new phase of economic nationalism centered around so-called "reciprocal" tariffs, where the U.S. imposes levies mirroring those of its trading partners.

"The president will be announcing a tariff plan that will roll back the unfair trade practices that have been ripping off our country for decades," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday. "It's time for reciprocity."

These new tariffs are expected to generate between $600 billion and $1 trillion in revenue over the next year. That figure implies an effective average tariff rate of 18% to 30%, assuming import volumes remain stable. The average U.S. tariff rate today hovers around 2.5% to 3%.

See Also: Trump To Target ‘Dirty 15’ Countries With Tariffs: Which Countries Could Be Included?

Goldman Raises Tariff Forecast Amid ‘Reciprocity' Rhetoric

Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker said Tuesday his team now sees the average U.S. tariff rate rising by 15 percentage points in 2025, revising up their prior baseline by 5 points.

That move reflects "a more aggressive assumption for ‘reciprocal' tariffs," Walker said, adding that while exclusions could lower the final effective rate, the initial hit could be massive.

According to Goldman Sachs, the Trump tariff framework is expected to focus primarily on countries running trade surpluses with the U.S., which collectively account for roughly 87% of all U.S. imports. Smaller nations and those with trade deficits would likely be exempt from the new duties.

While the headline reciprocal tariff may average around 15%, Goldman believes various country-specific and product-specific exclusions could increase the effective average tariff rate closer to 9 percentage points.

Under the current framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the impact is expected to be minimal for Canada and Mexico.

Goldman Sachs estimates that tariffs on goods from these two countries raise the effective average rate by only 0.6 percentage points due to widespread compliance with trade provisions.

In addition, Goldman anticipates that sector-specific tariffs—particularly those already imposed on auto, steel and aluminum—will likely be stacked on top of the broader reciprocal tariffs, compounding the overall trade burden across several industries.

Goldman believes the cumulative effect of all existing and proposed tariffs would raise the average effective tariff rate from about 3% to 18%, possibly even higher.

Markets Fly Blind Ahead Of April 2

For now, investors are in the dark.

"The trouble is that there have been so many contradictory statements about what this may mean, that markets can't handicap the outcomes," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.

"It seems increasingly plausible that Trump and his administration are also undecided. That means that trading the outcome is seat-of-the-pants stuff and somewhat foolhardy."

Analyst Ed Yardeni expects April 2 may not be the end of it.

He said tariff announcements could continue in the months ahead as the U.S. negotiates country-by-country and adds sector-specific levies, potentially heightening the uncertainty for businesses and consumers long after the ceremonial event.

During Tuesday morning trading in New York, the S&P 500 index — as tracked by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY — rose 0.5%, after closing the quarter down by 4.7%.

Betting Markets Price In ‘Large’ Tariffs

Traders in Kalshi’s prediction market are also betting on a significant tariff increase. The odds of the U.S. reaching an average weighted tariff of at least 6% by the fourth quarter of 2025 now sit at 76%.

On bets targeting heavier tariffs against the European Union, a $100 wager on a 20%-29.99% tariff outcome would yield $272 if that range proves accurate.

As for the timing, speculators appear highly confident that the tariffs will take effect immediately, with a 98% probability before May.

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