nCino Analysts Flag Execution Challenges, Weaker Guidance Weighs On Outlook

Shares of nCino Inc NCNO dropped after the company reported mixed fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday.

The company reported its results amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways.

Truist Securities On nCino

Analyst Terry Tillman downgraded the rating from Buy to Hold, while slashing the price target from $44 to $21.

Although nCino reported solid results for its fiscal fourth quarter, they were "overshadowed by a number of compounding headwinds impacting guidance," Tillman said in the downgrade note. The headwinds included slower-than-expected customer expansion and mortgage recovery as well as weaker-than-expected sales execution, especially in Europe, he added.

Management does not expect gross bookings to accelerate before the second half of fiscal 2026, while expecting reported results to weaken during that period, the analyst stated. "Expected growth reacceleration theme seems to push out again (into FY27) and that could keep lid on shares for time being, in our opinion," he further wrote.

Needham On nCino

Analyst Mayank Tandon maintained a Buy rating, while cutting the price target from $45 to $28.

nCino reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $141.4 million, up 14.3% year-on-year, beating consensus of $140.9 million, Tandon said. The outperformance was driven by higher subscription revenue, which rose 16.3% year-on-year to $125 million and came in above consensus of $123.7 million, he added.

Management's guidance was weaker than expected "across the board" for both the first quarter and fiscal 2026, "due to one-time items from FY25, ongoing mortgage challenges, and FX headwinds," the analyst wrote. The company guided to first-quarter revenue of $138.75-$140.75 million, lower than consensus $145.2 million, and earnings of 15-16 cents per share, versus consensus of 21 cents per share, he further stated.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

Piper Sandler On nCino

Analyst Brent Bracelin reiterated a Neutral rating, while reducing the price target from $38 to $28.

nCino's total revenue growth accelerated to 14.3% year-on-year and "benefited from $4.3M of FullCircl revenue," which implies that organic growth decelerated to 10% from 13% in the previous quarter, Bracelin said. The company's operating margin contracted to 17% "after topping 20% for the first time on record in Q3, impacted by $3.2M of incremental opex from the FullCircl acquisition," he added.

This was the new CEO's first earnings, during which he highlighted areas where execution had been soft, including "slow rollout of consumer lending product, slow integration of DocFox (resulted in customers pausing), too optimistic around rate cuts, weaker sales execution in Europe," the analyst wrote. Management's guidance for fiscal 2026 reflects 6.6% growth at the midpoint, significantly short of consensus expectations of 13.3%, he stated.

Stephens On nCino

Analyst Charles Nabhan reaffirmed an Equal Weight rating and price target of $38.

nCino net recurring revenue growth decelerated to 110% in fiscal 2025, from 116% in fiscal 2024 and 144% in the prior year, Nabhan said. He added that the earnings release focused on the company's fiscal 2026 guidance, which came in substantially below expectations.

The guidance reflects organic subscription revenue growth of 7%, below expectations of 10%, and adjusted operating income of $109 million at the mid-point, versus consensus of around $120, the analyst stated. "While the outlook reflects weaker than expected mortgage volumes and demand for middle/back-office solutions, including in Europe, we highlight the platform pricing transition as an add’l variable," he wrote.

NCNO Price Action: Shares of nCino had declined by 22% to $21.91 at the time of publication on Wednesday.

Read More:

• Challenges in Mortgage Segment Hurt nCino, Analyst Downgrades Stock

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