Tradeweb, Nasdaq, Virtu, ICE, BGC Group, Cboe Set To Benefit From IPO Comeback: Analyst

Macro uncertainty has delayed the timeline for an IPO comeback, but there remains substantial pent-up supply for equity issuance.

That’s according to BofA Securities analyst Craig Siegenthaler, who maintained all of his ratings and continues to look for a reopening in the second half of 2025.

This will restart Nasdaq, Inc‘s NDAQ strategic flywheel across listings, trading, and corporate services, he says.

Also Read: Nasdaq Plans 24-Hour Trading To Tap Global Investor Demand

Siegenthaler continued to forecast the highest 12-month upside for:

Tradeweb Markets Inc TW; Buy rating, price target $212 from $197.
BGC Group, Inc BGC; Buy rating, price target $15 from $16.
Nasdaq; Buy rating, price target $105 from $103.
Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE; Buy rating, price target $260 from $251.

There is a significant runway left in the electronification of fixed-income markets at Tradeweb Markets, and given their considerable rates business, the analyst noted that Tradeweb Markets will capitalize on the political uncertainty in Washington.

Siegenthaler will look for BGC Group to launch Treasury futures within days and expect their share of the $2 billion revenue per year interest rate futures market to continue accelerating, surpassing 10% in 2027.

The increasingly uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop produced ideal conditions for trading across asset classes.

Accordingly, Siegenthaler raised EPS for his entire market structure coverage. While the analyst expects some downward normalization in volumes into the second half of 2025 (in parallel with a pickup in IPOs), ongoing geopolitical uncertainty will remain an important trading catalyst.

Given his view of second-half normalizations, we are less bullish on Exchange stocks (which outperformed) than the Alts and Brokers.

With market structure stocks up 8% on average in the first quarter of 2025, Nasdaq and Virtu Financial, Inc. VIRT — Buy rating, price target $48 from $56 — have lagged the group.

Nevertheless, the analyst forecasted over 10% first-quarter 2025 EPS beats for both stocks.

Both companies have benefitted from the surge in equity volume in the first quarter of 2025.

Assets under management linked to the Nasdaq-100 have faced beta headwinds related to the choppy equity markets year-to-date. One-third of their indexing revenue is derived from Nasdaq-100 futures, which posted their strongest growth quarter in years (up 38% sequentially) and are seeing strong adoption at the online brokers. In addition, the annual listing price hike (estimated 5%) should more than offset any delisting headwinds.

Meanwhile, Virtu Financial should also see solid results across its organic initiatives, with industry volumes in options, ETFs, and fixed income higher sequentially.

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc MKTX — Underperform rating, price target $191 from $189 — rallied 12% in March.

Investors embedded an industrywide mix shift into A2A RFQ, where they are dominant. Siegenthaler noted that portfolio trading (PT) and D2D trading have also logged impressive volumes month-to-date, up 18% and 11% month-on-month (versus +9% for TRACE).

Tradeweb Markets remains dominant in both of these market segments. Accordingly, the analyst does not expect MarketAxess Holdings to post higher market share gains than Tradeweb Markets in March. Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange Inc ICE — Buy rating, price target $230 from $237 — will likely experience near-term cyclical headwinds in its mortgage and listing business.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE — Buy rating, price target $260 from $251 — and Tradeweb Markets could see a sequentially adverse product mix shift, given a lower contribution from SPX and muni bonds.

Futures and index options usage CME Group Inc CME — Underperform rating, price target $219 from $200 — and Cboe Global Markets on Robinhood is ramping nicely. La Nina has been a helpful catalyst for commodity futures. The Mr. Cooper and Rocket Mortgage deal will cost Intercontinental Exchange approximately 410 bps of servicing share and 130 bps of origination share, which the analyst noted amounts to a $72 million headwind.

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