Tom Lee Predicts a Market Rebound After April 9 As 'Absurd' Tariffs Could Spur Potential Negotiations - Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) Common units of fractional undivided beneficial interest (ARCA:BTC)

Financial analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors provided his analysis on the market’s response and potential tactics behind the White House’s actions.

What Happened: On Thursday, in a conversation with StockMKTNewz, Tom Lee gave his viewpoint on the repercussions of the sudden tariff rates declared by the Trump administration. The rates, 46% on Vietnam and 34% on China, were calculated based on trade deficits, a departure from traditional tariff methodologies, and were much harsher than expected.

Lee characterized these rates as “absurd,” comparing them to a “dark comedy” due to their arbitrary nature and lack of economic rationale. The immediate market reaction was a significant 3.5% opening gap down in the S&P 500, marking the seventh largest negative opening gap in 40 years.

Trump’s tariff wiped out around $2.5 trillion from the U.S. stock market.

As earnings season nears, Lee expects companies with solid fundamentals and limited exposure to tariff-impacted supply chains to stand out as “superpower companies.”

Lee believes Tesla TSLA remains stable because the market has already accounted for the worst-case scenario, potentially setting the stage for a V-shaped recovery. Strong performers like Palantir PLTR, Bitcoin BTC/USD, and Strategy MSTR, previously MicroStrategy, further indicate that market leaders are stabilizing rather than declining further.

“I expect a V-shaped recovery, but the timing is now a bit harder to judge because we don't really have the band-aid completely ripped off until April 9th.”

Why It Matters: Despite the initial market panic, Lee maintains a cautious optimism, arguing that the economic impact may not be as catastrophic as feared. He pointed out the benefit of falling bond yields: for every 10 basis points the 10-year Treasury yield drops, the U.S. saves $36 billion in debt service costs.

Lee sees the White House’s silence as a calculated strategy to create panic among trading partners, maximizing negotiating leverage until the April 9 deadline. He believes this approach is primarily aimed at the EU and China, the two regions most critical to U.S. trade dynamics.

Tom Lee called the market sell-off amid recession fears during mid-March an “overreaction”. Even earlier this week, Lee wrote on X, "Markets are deeply oversold," adding that "too many are only pricing in ‘worst case’" scenarios.

Despite the market turmoil, Lee encouraged investors to remain resilient, predicting a sharp bounce around April 9 as negotiations progress and the VIX subsides.