Copper's Rout Sees A Massive Intraday Price Swing, 'Fundamentals Haven't Changed,' Expert Says

Copper experienced one of the most volatile trading days in over 15 years, tumbling as much as 7.7% at the start of Monday's trading session in London.

Three-month contracts slid to $8,780 a ton as investors scrambled to reduce exposure—before staging a nearly $1,000 rebound in just over two hours—marking the largest intraday price swing since 2009.

"Metals are under significant pressure from dampened sentiment as the world braces for a possible recession and heightened geopolitical tensions that would threaten demand," Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI, said per Bloomberg.

Copper's volatility recently surged as President Donald Trump's tariff threat hit both sides of the spectrum. The market rallied sharply in anticipation as the threat of copper being added to the list of targeted metals loomed in March.

Traders raced to reroute shipments to the U.S., capitalizing on a premium in New York prices – even yesterday's selloff saw New York prices hovering much higher, around $10,000 per ton.

However, a possible recession quenched speculators' short-term thirst, as copper exceeded the broad sector decline before buyers stepped in to reverse the course. For Codelco chairman Maximo Pacheco, the logic behind the dip buying is obvious.

The fundamentals haven't changed at all," he said, citing sustained Chinese interest and a resilient U.S. market. China has been a notable copper buyer in times of price crunches, stepping in to recover the market in 2008 and 2020.

Codelco, the world's top copper supplier, plans to invest up to $5.6 billion in 2025 to rejuvenate aging mines and restore output to pre-2020 levels. The Chilean state-owned giant is also expanding into lithium, aiming to finalize a key deal with SQM by Q3.

The tariff uncertainty dominated discussions at this week's CESCO conference in Santiago, where Freeport-McMoRan FCX CEO Kathleen Quirk warned that trade wars could "cause people to not invest, to not buy, to change their patterns and affect demand."

Last month, Quirk noted that tariffs could boost her company's annual profits by $500 million, but she's well aware that the long-term industry outlook stretches beyond the short-term profit.

"All of us will rely on a market that will be growing in demand and not subject to these big recessions that we've seen over time," she said, according to Reuters, recalling the effects of the Great Recession.

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