Alphabet's $75 Billion Bet: 'Too Significant For Google To Pull Back' Now, Says JPMorgan

While Washington throws punches and semiconductor companies grab headlines, Alphabet Inc‘s GOOGL GOOG Google is playing the long game in near silence.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth isn’t buying the doom and gloom. He's still Overweight on Alphabet, setting a $180 price target by December 2025 for the stock. He sees a future where Google’s GenAI innovation does the heavy lifting even if macro winds blow rough.

Sure, there's plenty to stress over: "macro and tariff-related concerns," a bruising antitrust loss in the AdTech trial and OpenAI's 800M+ user rocket ship. Anmuth trimmed estimates across the board, even conceding Google’s reported Search growth this year to a "hopefully-too-punitive 3%." But that's just the headline drama.

Read Also: Options Corner: Monday Blues Can’t Hide Alphabet Stock’s Potential Upside Pivot

AI Push Continues Despite Macro Noise

Under the radar, Google’s AI machine is quietly cranking up. "We are encouraged by Google’s GenAI innovation," Anmuth said, noting a flurry of product updates that are putting serious pressure on competitors. Gemini 2.5 Pro, the new Flash model and Veo 2 for video generation are not just fancy toys – they’re signs of an ecosystem shift.

Anmuth sees the groundwork being laid for something bigger: "We remain optimistic about Google’s advances in GenAI with an accelerated pace of innovation this year." With 15 Google products crossing 500 million users – seven of which top two billion – Gemini’s reach is everywhere.

“The GenAI opportunity is too significant for Google to pull back on & GenAI workloads could help mitigate macro pressures,” he said. The $75B capex guide for 2025 is a clear tell that Google isn't slowing down.

Cloud Momentum Still Healthy

Cloud is another big bet. Fresh off a star turn at the Google Cloud Next conference, Google is positioning itself as the CSP (cloud service provider) of choice for GenAI. Anmuth was impressed by "AI optimization with leading price performance, precision, & quality" and says Google's interoperability strategy and foundational model portfolio could win over more business clients.

The analyst is also betting that key events, such as Google I/O, Marketing Live and Made by Google, will keep the GenAI narrative front and center. "We expect upcoming product-focused events to emphasize consumer and advertiser use cases & further advance Google's GenAI narrative," Anmuth wrote.

Legal Clouds Loom, But No Thunder Yet

And what about the legal drama?

Anmuth sees the AdTech ruling as a known risk: "An unfavorable AdTech outcome was mostly anticipated by investors," and the bigger worry remains the search trial remedy due by August. But even with Network revenue declining 3% this year, Anmuth isn't rattled.

Google's search crown may look a little wobbly from afar, but its AI engine is humming beneath the surface.

As Anmuth puts it, "The GenAI opportunity is too significant for Google to pull back on."

Read Next:

• Google Parent Alphabet’s Topline Can Withstand Pressure In Uncertain Macro Scenario Compared To Peers: Analyst

Photo: Shutterstock