Mobileye's Robotaxi Push Gains Speed With Uber And Lyft, But Analyst Cuts 2026 Forecast On Tariff-Led SuperVision Delays

Needham analyst Quinn Bolton reiterated the Buy rating on Mobileye Global Inc. MBLY, lowering the price forecast from $20 to $18.

On Thursday, the company reported first-quarter revenue growth of 83% year-on-year to $438 million, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $435.2 million. Adjusted EPS of 8 cents was in line with the analyst consensus estimates. 

The analyst highlighted several positives from the quarter, including strong design win momentum, such as Mobileye's first Surround ADAS win and a significant ADAS contract with a Korean automaker. The analyst also noted continued progress in robotaxi partnerships with Uber and Lyft, which could become meaningful by 2027.

Also Read: Autonomous Ride-Hailing Just Got Real: VW And Uber Reveal First US City

Bolton writes that the Lyft collaboration is progressing, with Marubeni set to operate the fleet, and initial rollouts are expected in Dallas by 2026.

For Uber, Mobileye's Drive technology will be part of its joint robotaxi initiative with Volkswagen.

Both partnerships will follow a business model involving a one-time upfront system fee, followed by recurring licensing fees based on mileage. This offers solid average selling prices and favorable margins, the analyst writes.

Although 2025 estimates remain mostly intact, slight adjustments were made to gross margin and operating expenses. In contrast, 2026 forecasts were reduced due to anticipated delays in SuperVision and CAV unit volumes, which are influenced by uncertainty around tariffs, Bolton writes.

The analyst also pointed out that Porsche remains the only driver of incremental SV volume in the near term.

Bolton projects FY25 earnings per share of 27 cents. The analyst lowered FY26 EPS estimate to 35 cents from 40 cents.

Price Action: MBLY shares are trading higher by 1.66% to $14.74 at last check Friday.

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