Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Analysts Remain Bullish But Warn Of 'Tariff Tornado' Hitting iPhone

Tech giant Apple Inc AAPL could show better-than-feared results for China and the iPhone when the company reports second-quarter financial results after the market close Thursday.

Here are analyst earnings estimates, a look at what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Apple to report second-quarter revenue of $94.42 billion, up from $90.75 billion in last year's second quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in eight straight quarters and nine of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Apple to report second-quarter earnings per share of $1.62, up from $1.53 in last year's second quarter.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in eight straight quarters and in nine of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Experts Are Saying: Progress on global production of items like the iPhone could be a key focus for investors in the second quarter results, said Jay Woods, Freedom Capital Markets chief global strategist.

"AAPL shares are 19% below all-time highs and facing pressure in the Chinese markets. The company has announced plans to shift production to India," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

He added that quarterly results could show a bump in iPhone sales with people "rushing out to beat expected tariff increases.” And that "iPhone sales will also be scrutinized closely."

Woods said Apple could provide a "tease" of what's to come next, but that will likely be reserved for their upcoming events.

Apple and the tech sector face a "black cloud overhang" due to tariffs, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a recent investor note.

He expects minimal guidance from Apple, given the overhang and predicts that Apple could see lower demand if China tariffs stay in place.

"We remain bullish on the long-term opportunity for Apple's flagship ecosystem and focus on its 1.5 billion iPhone and 2.4 billion iOS installed base and massive Services business for downside protection in this market backdrop for tech investors," Ives said.

He advised Apple investors to look past the next quarter and assume tariff negotiations will take a positive turn in the future to "stop this tariff tornado from hitting iPhone prices."

Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett recently said that Trump's tariffs could "blow up Apple." The analyst maintained a Buy rating on Apple with a $263 price target.

Crockett estimates that Apple could face $39.5 billion in tariff costs.

“We believe that close to 100% of iPhones sold in the U.S. are made in China, 90% of Macs, 80% of iPads, 90% of Apple Watches and 35% of Airpods.”

Without Apple raising prices, the analyst estimates that operating profits and earnings per share could be down by around 32% annually. Raising prices could offset demand, Crockett warned.

Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth said Apple's Services growth and the integration of Apple Intelligence are future catalysts that investors should focus on.

The analyst said these two items and Apple’s growing customer base will “continue to drive ongoing revenue and cash flow growth.”

“AAPL’s ongoing integration of Apple Intelligence will increasingly enhance the cadence of new product introductions and drive Services growth and further growth of its ecosystem,” Feinseth said.

Feinseth noted that Apple’s installed base of active devices hit an all-time high in the most recently reported quarter and reiterated a Strong Buy rating on Apple, raising the price target from $295 to $300.

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee recently said Apple's second quarter results will be "better-than-feared."

The analyst, who maintained an Overweight rating and a $245 price target, said fears of demand disruption and cost headwinds from tariffs could weigh on Apple stock, while maintaining a bullish outlook on revenue and momentum.

“We are positive on AAPL shares with a near-term view into a positive set up into earnings with the likelihood of better-than-feared outcomes in relation to both revenues and gross margins,” Chatterjee said.

The analyst expects a “modest pull-forward” in demand thanks to consumer upgrades and channel inventory fill.

Key Items to Watch: Tariffs and iPhones will be the two most closely watched items in Apple's results and management commentary.

In the first-quarter iPhone sales declined to $69.14 billion from the previous first quarter total of $69.7 billion. That weakness was offset by year-over-year growth for other segments like Mac, iPad, Wearables and Services.

So, while all eyes will be on the iPhone, investors and analysts will also look at the other lines to see whether the strength there is offsetting or is complementary to the iPhone segment.

Guidance will be another key topic, as Apple does not provide forward guidance after the first quarter. Many companies have stopped reporting guidance or have been more cautious in their guidance, given the tariff concerns and the macroeconomic environment.

Apple will host the Worldwide Developers Conference beginning on June 9. The company could provide a tease of what items or parts of this it is most excited about.

AAPL Price Action: Apple stock trades at $211.32 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $169.11 to $260.10. Apple stock is down 13.3% year-to-date in 2025 and up 24% over the last year.

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