The US Could Lose $12.5 Billion In Travel Revenue In 2025 Due To Political Uncertainties

• The U.S. is set to lose $12.5 billion in travel revenue this year, according to data from the World Travel & Tourism Council 
• The findings, which were shared exclusively with Bloomberg, have been attributed to a number of factors including the rising American dollar and President Donald Trump's "America first" attitude
• If the predictions hold, revenues will be down 22% compared to 2019

The U.S. is on track to lose $12.5 billion in travel revenue this year, according to data from the World Travel & Tourism Council shared with Bloomberg. 

The estimate represents a 7% decline in visitor spending year over year, and a 22% decline from 2019, when tourism in the U.S. reached its peak. If the projection holds, traveler spending in the U.S. will fall below $169 billion by year end.

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According to the WTTC, the U.S. is the only country out of the 184 surveyed that is projected to lose tourism dollars this year.

"Other countries are really rolling out the welcome mat, and it feels like the US is putting up a ‘we are closed' sign at their doorway," WTTC CEO Julia Simpson told Bloomberg. 

The consequences of this shift could be devastating for the economy, Simpson warns. According to data collected by the WTTC and Oxford Economics, direct and indirect tourism represents 9% of the American economy. In total, the sector employs around 20 million people and creates $585 billion in tax dollars each year, which amounts to about 7% of all tax revenues. 

"The US travel and tourism sector is the biggest sector globally compared to any other country, worth almost $2.6 trillion," Simpson says. It's a "major mainstay of the U.S. economy."

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Some of the challenges the American tourism industry is facing are years in the making. For example, Simpson says restrictions from COVID-era travel lingered in the U.S. longer than they did in many other countries. Then the rising U.S. dollar started pricing people out, she told Bloomberg. These things kept visitors from places like Japan and Europe, countries who typically have a lot of tourists in the U.S., from making the trip.

Other challenges the industry faces are new and have seemingly sprung up overnight. Simpson says many travelers are now shifting their behaviors as a result of the "America first" rhetoric and policy. 

"What we are seeing now is a sentiment shift that's really very sad," Simpson told Bloomberg. "Legislators need not confuse the tourism sector with issues around illegal immigration. A sophisticated system can balance both without turning [the country] into an island that no one wants to visit."

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The WTTC predicts that it will take until 2030 for tourism to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels. "The thing about tourism is it's extremely resilient," Simpson says. "If you push the right buttons, it will bounce back."

But it might be too little, too late. Simpson told Bloomberg that while the U.S. is making it more difficult to visit, every other country is making it easier. "India is gaining, the Middle East is gaining, China is gaining, Europe is doing quite well. It's only Americans that are being left behind and losing out," she said.

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