Deutsche Bank Gives Holiday Sales Preview For Retailers

Most hardline retailers won't report holiday sales trends until February or even March. However, a handful of names should provide some color in the coming weeks. These include Family Dollar FDO, which is due to report 1Q11 sales and earnings on January 5th, and Best Buy BBY, which is due to report December sales on January 7th. We are also assuming that 99 Cents Only Stores NDN will report 3Q11 sales, probably on January 6th. Overall, Deutsche Bank thinks holiday sales should be solid. However, of the four hardline companies reporting in the coming weeks, there is likely to be a divergence in trends. Deutsche Bank also looks for a strong report from Family Dollar, similar to other value retailers. Deutsche Bank expects NDN to show stable trends from the previous quarter, but not a sharp acceleration yet. Lastly, Best Buy likely still comped negatively in December with its estimate no better than the 5% decline reported in the November quarter. Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on FDO, BBY, and NDN