Citi Comments On Eli Lilly Product Trends

Eli Lilly's LLY Effient: 3.1% NRx's of Plavix Market; Citi Assumes 2010 US Sales of $90M. Effient weekly NRx/TRx of 6,156/16,222 vs. Plavix at 189,487/ 623,301. Effient is flat priced at $5.40/day. Cymbalta: $2.5B Annual Run Rate Implied by 4-Wk Avg. TRx's vs. Citi's 2010E US Sales of $2.8B.Cymbalta posted wkly NRx/TRx of 151,079/360,536 & has a 9.9%TRx share of the depression market. Rolling 4wk/12wk NRx growth rates were +3%/+1%; TRx rates were +3%/+2%. LLY took an 8% PI on 9/3/10, with 30/60mg flat priced at $4.61/day. Cymbalta was approved in chronic musculoskeletal pain on Nov 4th. Specifically, the company faces a number of patent expirations in 2011-13, which in aggregate a significant portion of Lilly's earnings. The company also faces a number of Paragraph-IV patent challenges, which may negatively impact earnings depending on their outcomes. Lilly's sales are increasingly becoming dependent on Cymbalta going forward, and any weakness in TRx trends may negatively impact the stock's ability to reach the target price. Citi has a Hold rating and $38 PT on LLY