Dahlman Rose Lowers Its PT On Alpha Natural Resources To $70

Alpha Natural Resources ANR introduced 2012 production and hedging guidance showing an expectation of flat volumes versus this year for each operating region. The company has unpriced volumes of 38%, 84% and 91% next year for the PRB, Eastern Steam and Metallurgical segments, respectively. Price, volume and cost per ton guidance for 2011 was left essentially unchanged. The 84% unpriced eastern thermal position for next year is one of the highest percentages among US producers, and Dahlman Rose views this positively. Dahlman has adjusted its earnings estimates in each of the next two years to reflect updated hedged volumes and pricing as well as slightly higher cash costs per ton. Dahlman is changing EBITDA forecast to $1,167MM and $1,402MM in 2011 and 2012, respectively, from $1,173MM and $1,464MM previously. The price target is now changed to $70 versus $72, and Dahlman is reiterating its Buy rating. ANR is trading higher at $53.54