In a note to investors, Jefferies writes, "Recall FDX traded up 4.6% in the days following the widely-expected pre-report in mid-February, a dynamic that we attributed to the fact that oil had trended higher in calendar 4Q but then started to re-trace. In recent weeks, however, FDX stock has acted more like a high-beta airline – generally trading down into oil spikes and
rebounding into pockets of market strength. Modest continued increases in oil prices are generally not a barrier to owning FDX shares, in our view, provided such increases are due to global macro economic strength. When increased oil prices are rooted in external shocks (e.g., geopolitical risk), it makes it substantially harder to frame the potential “tail risk.”"

Jefferies goes on to say, "We've been impressed with most freight volumes YTD despite weather issues. Consumer spending and industrial production remain strong. These are key to our upbeat view on the stock, and we anticipate FDX management's
reaffirming solid volumes Thursday morning. Given that FDX's EPS is still 34% below past-peak (the second-largest delta in our coverage), we continue to see material earnings growth over the next 12-24 months. We don't think oil has gotten to levels where demand destruction enters the picture, although trying to understand that potential inflection point is something we think about almost daily."