J.P. Morgan Maintains Neutral on Medivation (MDVN)

J.P. Morgan is out with its report today on Medivation MDVN, maintaining Neutral.

In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan writes, "Our December 2011 price target of $12 is based on our probability-adjusted NPV analysis of MDV3100 and net cash. We assume a 20% probability of success for MDV 3100 discounted at 15%, which, based on our analysis, implies a value of roughly $5/share. Adding cash of $7/share, we believe $12/share is a reasonable estimate, which in turn justifies our Neutral rating."

Shares of MDVN closed Wednesday at $16.25.