Citi Comments On Allergan's Over Active Bladder Data

In a report published by Citi, Allergan AGN Presented Positive Results for its First Botox Phase III Trial in Neurogenic Overactive Bladder (OAB) at the European Association of Urology (EAU) meeting in Vienna. Citi said that the positive data was expected since AGN filed its supplementary Biologics Application (sBLA) with the FDA in Oct. 2010. “We assume approval in 4Q11 (assuming a 3-month FDA delay). AGN is expected to present data from its second Ph-III trial at the American Urological Association (AUA) meeting on May 14-19 in Washington, DC. We view neurogenic OAB (in multiple sclerosis & spinal cord injury patients) as a niche opportunity, potentially contributing <$100M in U.S. sales in 2015E. We view idiopathic OAB as a significantly larger indication at $400M+, with ongoing clinical trials completing in 2012, with approval in 2013+. Therapeutic indications (OAB, chronic migraine & spasticity) & emerging markets drive our above-consensus ‘15E Botox sales of $2.9B vs. Street $2.2B. We estimate that every incremental $100M in Botox sales yields $0.10-$0.12 to EPS. We maintained our Buy rating and $82 price target.” Allergan closed yesterday at $70.25.