Oppenheimer maintains its Perform rating on Comerica CMA despite the relative underperformance in price this year. Its view on the Sterling Banc acquisition is that it's a step backward before going two steps forward for the company. In order to take that step forward investors need more confidence that Comerica did not overpay for Sterling, which may take until 4Q11. Until then Oppenheimer sees limited downside in CMA but feels there are better investment opportunities elsewhere in the regional banking sector. Oppenheimer is initiating a '13 estimate of $3.65.
Most of the fundamental reasons behind the strong investor interest last year remain in place today. Comerica is still a well-respected middle-market commercial lender, is well positioned for rising interest rates and remains well capitalized compared to peers. This was clearly the bull case for owning the stock in '10.
CMA closed Friday at $36.79
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