Deutsche Bank Reports Post-Split-Time Performance For Marathon Oil

According to Deutsche Bank, Marathon Oil MRO saw a post-split-time performance. Deutsche Bank said that the good news is that the company is relatively cheap-looking. “The bad news is that the side with the stronger operational record and management reputation, in the mind of the market, is MPC the refiner, in a fundamentally challenged industry. However our view is that our “Diamond Age” and MPC's focused exposure will allow it trade well, and if it doesn't, it can start making noise about an MLP spin-out we think could be worth $5+ per share (NAV within). For the upstream, the bull case is that it gets taken over; MRO is cheap. The bear case is that it makes a “transformational” acquisition which, cheap as it MRO is, would be very dilutive to existing shareholders – no takeout candidates are cheaper. For now our P/E methodology yields $62 (target P/E 11x, mid-cycle EPS $5.60). Top-down multiple analysis yields $61. We estimate NAV at $58. With a weighting toward the topdown valuation, we arrive at our blended $60 PT. The size of Marathon makes it susceptible to event risk. Other downside risks include a slower-than-expected economic recovery, negative newsflow on current exploration projects, volatile refining earnings. Intervening economic or company-specific events could compel the company to alter its plans to spin-off its downstream operations into a separate company, an event that would likely be viewed negatively by the market.” Marathon Oil closed yesterday at $52.56.