Will SpaceX Issues Hurt ViaSat?

In a report published Monday, Wunderlich analyst Matthew S. Robison maintained a Sell rating and $48 price target on ViaSat, Inc. VSAT. The challenges faced by SpaceX have led to doubts regarding the schedule for ViaSat-2. Following the mission failure of the SpaceX Falcon 9 on Sunday, NASA officials reaffirmed that no changes would be made to their schedules. ViaSat-2 is schedule for a F2Q16 launch, with Falcon Heavy, a new SpaceX vehicle. "It is conceivable that Falcon Heavy plans will not be interrupted, but we would expect some degree of SpaceX management distraction and perhaps further review of design and preparation measures from the investigation of yesterday's loss," Robison stated. ViaSat-2 will be launched in late summer in 2016, following the first commercial flight by Falcon Heavy for the Air Force and a test flight of the vehicle. "The test flight is still described at a first half of C2015 event on the SpaceX site, but other sources estimate it is to occur in C3Q16," the Wunderlich report said. If the ViaSat-2 launch is delayed by over a month or so, there could be a negative impact on the company's performance in 2017 and 2018. "If ViaSat-2 launches according to schedule, then we can expect incremental growth from added capacity as early as mid-fiscal 2017," Robinson mentioned, adding, "Without the tripling of capacity ViaSat-2 should bring, expect Satellite Services growth to slow to single-digit percentage levels, which are what we project for the second half of F2016."