Tesla Projected To Hit 2020 Unit Guidance...By 2025

Tesla Motors Inc TSLA shares are volatile on Monday after Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas cut his price target significantly. Jonas still views upside for the stock -- his price target of $333 is far above current trading prices. One detail in his analysis that's flying under the radar is his unit production forecast for Tesla going forward.

Total 2020 Deliveries Of 246,000 Versus 500,000 Guidance

Most notably, Jonas said his team expects total unit deliveries of 246,000 by 2020, versus company expectations of 500,000.

On Monday, the analyst lowered his Model X shipment forecast by 15 percent per year over this time, called the consumer payback benefits present in the Model 3 the "least compelling" in years, while slightly increasing his Model S forecast.

Jonas also provided an updated unit forecast through 2025. Of note, Morgan Stanley analysts don't expect Tesla to hit the 500,000 mark until five years after the company's guidance.

The Model S currently accounts for the majority of unit sales, while the Model X's footprint is forecasted to improve significantly by 2018. By 2020, Jonas expects Model 3 sales to be larger than Model X and Model S sales combined.

Model 3 sales growth projections are by far the most ambitious, and in this scenario, are expected to come close to tripling between 2020 and 2025. Jonas provided a few things Model 3 dates Tesla investors can expect going forward:

• Model 3 prototype unveiling, March 2016
• Model 3 launch, between late 2017 and late 2018
• Model 3 expected to be offered in at least five different body styles

It's possible at least some of these figures will change as analysts continue to get a clearer picture of Tesla's Model 3 and any related updates.

Shares of the company are near $195 as of this writing.