Elon Musk Lives Up To His 'Pie Throwing' Ambitions In Tesla's Print, But Naysayers Remain Cautionary

Remember when Tesla Motors Inc TSLA's CEO Elon Musk said that it would be "awesome to throw a pie in the face of all the naysayers on Wall Street who keep insisting that Tesla will always be a money-loser!"?

Turns out Tesla did exactly that in its third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, and in Thursday's pre-market session, Tesla was seen up 4.28 percent at $210.90.

However, the pie throwing party shouldn't be celebrated too long, at least according to Gadfly's Liam Denning.

According to Denning, some of the facts and figures beyond the headline numbers should be of concern. For starters, Tesla's operating cash flow of $424 million, its best ever, could be due to a surge in revenue from credits that Tesla earned for selling zero-emission vehicles to $139 million — up from nearly zero in the prior quarter.

The profit margin on these credits was pegged as high as 95 percent by analysts at Barclays.

Denning also pointed out that Tesla reported a spike in payables and accrued liabilities, which means the company owes suppliers cash but has yet to pay them.

Moving forward, Denning thinks one of Tesla's disclosures signals the company's cash flow will turn negative in the current quarter. He noted that capital expenditure for the third quarter was $248 million, which was around one-third of the consensus estimate.

But Tesla's reduced capital spending guidance, which is 20 percent lower than its prior forecast of $2.25 billion, still implies the company will spend more than $1 billion in the final months of the year, or 58 percent of its annual target.

Even if Tesla repeats its "pie throwing" blowout quarter, it would still imply a cash burn north of $600 million.

Meanwhile, Musk took a "will-we-won't-we stance" on whether it needs to tap the market to finance its Model 3 ambitions or its acquisition of SolarCity Corp SCTY.

"So eat up your pie," Denning concluded. "There may not be another helping for a while."

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