Mobileye Could Collapse By Next Spring, According To Trip Chowdhry

Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research has never shied away from explaining his uber-bearish stance on many technology stocks, including Mobileye NV MBLY.

Chowdhry's Advantage 'Not Durable'

Chowdhry reiterated his negative stance on Mobileye on Wednesday and argued that the market continues to move away from the Israel-based provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies. Specifically, Autoliv has won a deal with Volvo, NextChip is trying to win a contract with Korean automakers and Germany-based Continental AG is looking to win contracts across Europe and the United States.

"Mobileye's first mover advantage is not durable," the analyst wrote. "Competition from Autoliv, Nextchip and Continental is going to make new design wins difficult for Mobileye."

Chowdhry added that the auto industry has almost decided that Sensor Fusion represents the future of the autonomous driving space and cameras merely play a secondary role.

What Happens In The Spring?

Chowdhry also suggested that in March of next year, Tesla Motors Inc TSLA is likely to show off its vastly improved self-driving and safety features in its Model S and Model X vehicles with its Sensor Suite and new software upgrade.

Accordingly, Mobileye's business is "probably okay" for the next four to six months, but after that, the company could collapse.

Finally, the analyst suggested that a fair value for Mobileye is an enterprise value of between $500 million to $1.0 billion.