A Guess And Kate Spade Pair Trade From Google Search Data

An analysis of specialty retail data collated from the Google Trends online platform for the fiscal fourth quarter period suggests that Guess?, Inc. GES may have recorded comp sales upside against market estimates within the Americas region, while Kate Spade & Co KATE may report its first comparable sales miss.

Increased Interest In Guess

For the key Holiday 2016 period, search-term interest in the brand increased 52 basis point [bps] year-over-year. Although this is modest, it marks the company’s first quarterly growth since the summer of 2013, Wunderlich analyst Eric Beder pointed out.

“In applying the increase in search-term interest to the linear regression model used to forecast company comparable sales, the analytical process produces a quarterly SSS projection that is substantially stronger than the current, high single-digit decline consensus forecast,” Beder wrote.

Kate Spade May Miss Aggressive Expectations

Search-term interest for Kate Spade declined 2.1 percent year-over-year, marking its first quarter of decline in 28 quarters. The analyst pointed out, however, that this doesn't represent any material lag in current consensus forecasts. He added that the expectations for the brand were aggressive, despite a highly challenging handbag selling season during the Holiday 2016 period.

Wunderlich has Buy ratings on both the companies.