Why Apple Needs China Growth To Strengthen This Year

For years, China has been a major concern for Apple Inc AAPL and its shareholders. The latest numbers from UBS indicate that the story hasn’t changed in fiscal 2018. According to analyst Steven Milunovich, the global premium smartphone market is strong for Apple everywhere but China.

Sell-through data from Gartner suggests 6 percent global growth in the premium smartphone market in the December quarter. Apple captured an additional 1 percent of the global market, but it lost 17 percent of market share year-over-year in China.

UBS reports Apple’s mainland China market share was down 5 percent, while market share in Hong Kong and Taiwan plummeted 50 percent.

“A return to double-digit growth in China is critical to our F18 estimate of 12% unit growth,” Milunovich explains.

Related Link: 9 Most Popular Mobile Apps In China

While the China numbers are certainly troubling, shareholders can take comfort in the fact that Apple enjoyed record market share in the U.S., Europe, Japan and the “rest of the world” categories. In addition, the 5 percent decline in mainland China market share was relatively modest compared to the 31 percent decline in the previous quarter.

Finally, year-over-year iPhone comps in the next two quarters should get significantly easier for Apple.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $151 price target for Apple stock.