The 'Swamp' Drains Trump: Where Tax And Healthcare Reform Stand Now

Following the withdrawal of the Republican healthcare bill on Friday, investors are now worried that President Donald Trump will not be able to follow-through on the campaign promises that have driven the stock market’s “Trump Rally” since Election Day. According to Height Securities, those fears are justified.

When The Swamp Monsters Emerge

“Before Congress can plow ahead on tax reform, GOP leaders need to pass an FY18 budget in order to use reconciliation, which is probably a mid-to-late May event; we don’t think investors fully appreciate the risk to tax reform of a budget blowup, which we give 40 percent odds of occurring at this point,” Height analyst Peter Cohn explained.

Cohn predicts some form of tax reform is likely to happen prior to the 2018 elections, but investors who are expecting that reform to come prior to the end of the year may be disappointed.

For healthcare investors wondering about the outlook for healthcare reform, Height analyst Andrew Parmentier believes Republicans could try to tack on some version of a “skinny” healthcare fix onto a tax reform bill. Parmentier says the skinny version of healthcare reform “could include repeal of all or some of the ACA’s taxes and repeal of the individual mandate, replacing it with the 30 percent surcharge penalty introduced in the AHCA or some other softer penalty intended to compel younger, healthier people to participate.”

Parmentier added that investors shouldn’t expect Democrats to compromise or participate in the process at all.

After an early-morning selloff on concerns over Republican disfunction in Washington, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY has now pared much of its losses and is down just 0.2 percent on the day.

Related Links:

Trump's Keystone XL Pipeline Approval Will Impact Crude Oil Spreads, Boost Canadian Economy

Raymond James' Chief Investment Officer Is Calling An End To The 'Trump Rally'