24% Monthly Growth In Macau Gaming Win Pushes Casino Stocks Higher

Western casino stocks gained momentum Thursday as peers in Macau, the Chinese-controlled gaming mecca, posted their 10th consecutive positive month amid continued recovery from local anti-corruption efforts.

May gambling revenues popped 23.7 percent ($2.83 billion) year over year ahead of analyst estimates between 15 and 20 percent, according to Thursday government reports. Average daily revenue also rose 9 percent month over month, proving continued acceleration beyond previous growth of 7 percent.

Skepticism Remains

But Bernstein analysts were skeptical about the figures.

“We continue to voice caution about the accuracy of weekly channel check estimates and the strength (and volatility) surrounding VIP,” analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote in a Thursday note. “High hold rates in VIP along with continued volume strength creates volatility and lack of ability to more accurately forecast the monthly trend.”

By Umansky’s analysis, Wynn Macau Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group poached market share even as SJM Holdings Limited and SANDS CHINA LTD. conceded some of their hold. Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (ADR) MLCO and Wynn Macau are the sector’s best performers this year, with respective gains of 42 percent and 43 percent.

The firm expects the Macau aggregate, catalyzed by Chinese economic growth, to post 20- to 26-percent year-over-year increases in gross gambling revenue in June.

The Macau report and subsequent analyses sent western casino stocks on a Thursday morning run, with Melco trading up 2.6 percent, Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN 1.8 percent, MGM Resorts International MGM 1.2 percent and Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS nearly 1 percent in pre-market trading.

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