11 Restaurants With The Most Exposure To The Houston Market

The shock waves from Hurricane Harvey — which has caused a diaspora of great magnitude and the deaths of at least 30 people — are continuing to reverberate in the market.

Oil refineries have halted operations, prompting surges in national gas prices. Vehicles are underwater and insurance firms are shelling out. Restaurants have shuttered, forfeiting revenue and bracing for enduring damages.

Stephens analyst Will Slabaugh calculated the impact of 10-day closures for dining chains within a 60-mile radius of Houston, and the results were bleak. In most cases, they justified Slabaugh’s lowering of same-store sales and earnings-per-share estimates.

Here are his findings:

• BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. BJRI: With six stores in and 3.1-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is $936,986. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from -0.8 percent to -1.2 percent and EPS from $0.25 to $0.23.
• Brinker International, Inc. EAT: With 22 stores in and 1.3-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $2.3 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate for Chili’s from -1.3 percent to -1.6 percent and EPS from $0.43 to $0.42.
• Buffalo Wild Wings BWLD: With 24 stores in and 1.9-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $2.2 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from -2 percent to -2.4 percent and EPS from $0.93 to $0.87.
• Cheesecake Factory Inc CAKE: With six stores in and 2.7-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $1.8 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from -1.3 percent to -1.6 percent and EPS from $0.64 to $0.62.
• Chuy’s Holdings Inc CHUY: With nine stores in and 10.6-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $1.1 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from -1.5 percent to -2.7 percent and EPS from $0.28 to $0.21.
• Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI: With 44 stores in and 2.6-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $5.4 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate for Olive Garden from 2.5 percent to 2 percent and EPS from $1.07 to $1.
• Del Frisco’s Restaurant Group Inc DFRG: With two stores in and 5.4-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $515,000. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly EPS estimate from a loss of $0.02 to a loss of $0.03.
• Sonic Corporation SONC: With about 50 stores in and 1.3-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $2.2 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from -3 percent to -3.2 percent with an unchanged EPS of $0.42.
• Texas Roadhouse Inc TXRH: With 13 stores in and 2.4-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $1.7 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from 4.5 percent to 4.2 percent and EPS from $0.45 to $0.44. 
• Wingstop Inc WING: With about 43 stores in and 3.7-percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is about $1.3 million. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent with an unchanged EPS of $0.15.
• Zoe’s Kitchen Inc ZOES: With 11 stores in and 4.8 percent exposure to Houston, 10-day revenue loss is $452,055. Slabaugh adjusted his quarterly SSS estimate from flat to -0.6 percent and EPS from $0.02 to $0.01.

Related Link:

Petroleum Paradox Explained: Why Crude Prices Are Dropping And Gasoline Prices Are Rising In The Wake Of Harvey

Trading A Weakened El Nino