The Bear Thesis For Truckers: Tesla To Conquer All

The case against owning stock in trucking companies can be summarized in one word: Tesla.

Tesla Inc TSLA's plans to eventually sell electric semi-trucks is a "big deal" as it will disrupt one of the country's biggest industries, Loup Ventures' Gene Munster said in a blog post. Tesla's announcement it will indeed sell electric semi-trucks marks another step forward in the company's "grand vision."

The trucking industry today is "downright massive," as trucks account for 70 percent of the entire country's freight by weight and 82 percent by value, according to Loup Ventures. Trucks consume 54.3 billion gallons of fuel on a yearly basis. And truck drivers are the most common profession in more than half of all states.

Investors should keep in mind that Tesla's entrance into the new market will take many years, Munster cautioned. It is likely that Tesla will target short haul trucks in three years and long haul trucks in five years, Munster said. After five years, Tesla will likely offer a fleet of trucks as a service.

Tesla has confirmed an event date for Oct. 26, but details are scarce, Munster said. There's unlikely to be any confirmation on pricing or target dates, but the event could give a better understanding of the long-term opportunity.

While Tesla does have a reputation of missing initial delivery targets, entering the truck market has been on the company's "to-do list since the beginning," Munster said.

The trucking market opportunity is "ripe for Tesla's taking, considering legacy truck manufacturers' past struggles with innovation," he said. 

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Photo courtesy of Tesla.