Here It Is: Your Tesla Q3 Deliveries Preview

Tesla Inc TSLA may release third quarter vehicle delivery numbers within the next several days, and Tesla bulls are hoping the update will lift Tesla stock out of its recent funk. Tesla stock is down 7.5 percent in the past three months as Model 3 production begins. 

Unfortunately for Tesla investors, Baird analyst Ben Kallo said Friday that Q3 Model 3 deliveries may fall short of expectations.

Baird estimates that Tesla delivered 500 Model 3s in Q3, although Kallo speculated that delays may have pushed that number to as low as 300. Tesla had previously guided for 1,500 Model 3 deliveries in the quarter. (See Kallo's track record here.)

But Kallo said investors should be prepared for any short-term weakness in the stock following a disappointing number.

“While we acknowledge shares have appreciated 60 percent YTD, we would be buyers on weakness caused by a minor delay in the production ramp, particularly considering few investors expected TSLA to deliver any Model 3s in 2017 at the beginning of the year,” he said. 

Kallo still believes Tesla’s year-end target of 5,000 Model 3s per month is still in play, even if the company reports a sluggish Q3.

In addition to the critical Model 3 number, Baird is calling for 15,100 Model S deliveries and 10,800 Model X deliveries on the quarter for a total of 25,900 deliveries. Slumping Model X and Model S demand has been a popular argument among Tesla bears, but Kallo said any sequential improvement over Q2’s 22,000 combined deliveries would likely be seen as a positive by the market.

Baird maintains an Outperform and $411 price target for Tesla.

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The interior of a Tesla Model 3. Courtesy photo.