US Court Of Appeals Reverses Judgment Against Trinity, Look For Stock To Trade Higher

Trinity Industries Inc TRN traded up 11.9 percent Monday after winning a critical legal appeal after-hours Friday, but Stifel sees more room for upside.

Analysts Michael Baudendistel and Brady Cox had previously estimated that a reversal of the U.S. Court of Appeals’ initial judgment would stimulate at least a 10-percent pop in stock price, and implications on related cases filed on the basis of the initial verdict would drive value further.

Now, they believe Friday’s ruling could increase the possibility of delayed share repurchases and other strategic initiatives, especially considering Trinity had amassed significant liquidity in anticipation of a $682 million payment.

“Given recent comments from management about sellers' valuation expectations being elevated, which lead us to believe there is no M&A activity imminent, we believe significant capital could be returned to shareholders via share repurchases in the near-term, which could provide additional upside,” Baudendistel and Cox wrote in a weekend note.

At the same time, they suspect that the immediate effects of the latest ruling may have been muted by anticipation of a positive outcome justified by mid-March legal precedents.

“We believe the decision issued today [Friday] may come as less of a surprise relative to the favorable developments in the case recently,” Baudendistel and Cox wrote.

Stifel reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and raised its price target from $31 to $42. KeyBanc and Citigroup also maintain Buys on the news.

At the time of publication, Trinity was trading at $35.35, up 10.7 percent on the day.

Related Link: A Top Steel Analyst Highlights Acute Risk To Trinity Industries' 2018 Operating Margin