An iPhone X Preorder Primer

Ahead of Apple Inc. AAPL iPhone X pre-order on Oct. 27, Gene Munster expects lead times for the phone to reach four to six weeks a few hours after ordering opens up.

Munster expects the iPhone X will reach global supply-demand equilibrium in three to four months after the launch, falling sometime in the March quarter.

While not an exact science, Loup Ventures has seen iPhone lead times as a way to gauge demand for the iPhone. Contrarily to some accusations, Munster does not believe that Apple purposefully creates long lead times to create a guise of demand.

If the firm sees lead times of four to six weeks the morning of the pre-order sale, that is generally a sign demand for the iPhone X is trending more favorable than investor expectations. If by Sunday lead times are less than two weeks, Munster says he would be concerned about underlying demand for the phone.

One of the most anticipated Apple products in years will be a make or break story over the next year according to the analyst.

“The iPhone mix and ASP will be the biggest driver of AAPL shares in the next year, which we expect to be favorable to the story,” said Munster in a preorder primer report.

“At first take the $1000 starting price iPhone feels like a deal breaker. We think that’s a fallacy, and consumers will take a step function jump in what they’re willing to spend on an iPhone given most buy their phones on installment plans,” he concluded.

Related Link: Apple May Not Be Able To Meet iPhone X Demand, Which Could Be A Good Thing